Sitemap - 2025 - The Writ
Weekly Writ 12/11: B.C. Conservatives look to post-Rustad future
#EveryElectionProject: Saskatchewan
The Numbers: Could the shake-up in B.C. be felt in Ottawa?
Weekly Writ 12/4: Risks and rewards for the Liberals in pipeline project
#EveryElectionProject: Alberta
The Numbers: Mark Carney's hinge moment
Weekly Writ 11/27: Riding data shows where parties targeted their election spending
The Numbers: Will Carney have to choose between Alberta and BC?
Weekly Writ 11/20: How the Liberals spent their election money
The Numbers: No election for now, but for how long?
Weekly Writ 11/13: Conservatives and NDP in rough shape ahead of budget vote
The Numbers: Is Pierre Poilievre's leadership on borrowed time?
Weekly Writ 11/6: Does floor-crossing help or hurt an MP's chances?
The Numbers: Budget, floor-crossing shake up Ottawa
The Numbers: Who should and shouldn't want an election?
Weekly Writ 10/23: Weighing parties' pros and cons of a snap election
#EveryElectionProject: Nova Scotia
The Numbers: Is Pierre Poilievre's leadership in trouble?
Weekly Writ 10/16: The numbers behind the PCs' upset win in NL
The Numbers: Carney's delicate balancing act with Trump
Election Writ 10/13: Will it be close in NL, or not close at all?
Weekly Writ 10/9: Budgets are moving to the fall, but what about elections?
#EveryElectionProject: New Brunswick
The Numbers: Could a polarized electorate be the new normal?
Election Writ 10/6: Will it be a Red Tide in Newfoundland and Labrador?
Weekly Writ 10/2: Has the Liberal path to a majority changed?
The Numbers: Are Carney and Poilievre a boost or a drag on their parties?
Election Writ 9/29: Full slates in Newfoundland and Labrador
Ep. 146: What's at stake in Newfoundland and Labrador's election
Weekly Writ 9/25: The fight for the soul of the NDP begins
The Numbers: What's the leadership review magic number?
Election Writ 9/22: Is the urban/rural divide coming to Newfoundland & Lab.?
Weekly Writ 9/18: Budget in November, a new record in December?
The Numbers: Who will prop up Carney's minority government?
Weekly Writ 9/11: 3 takeaways from the polls as Parliament returns
#EveryElectionProject: Manitoba
The Numbers: Are we buying or selling on Carney and Poilievre?
Weekly Writ 9/4: Will Newfoundland & Lab. follow the federal trend?
The Numbers: A tale of two NDPs
Weekly Writ 8/28: Kinew, Ford and the politics of moderation
The Numbers: Are Carney's Liberals losing steam?
Weekly Writ 8/21: On to the next test for Pierre Poilievre
The Numbers: Pierre Poilievre passes his byelection test
Model Development Diary #1: Which way to swing?
Weekly Writ 8/14: Byelection benchmarks for Pierre Poilievre
The Numbers: The Battle for Battle River–Crowfoot
Weekly Writ 7/31: How Battle River–Crowfoot will actually make history (for real)
The Numbers: Poilievre vs. 200+ candidates
Weekly Writ 7/17: How the length of the NDP's leadership race stacks up
The Numbers: Carney, Trump and TACOs
Weekly Writ 7/10: Flipping pancakes easier than flipping seats in Calgary
The Numbers: Who can save the NDP?
Weekly Writ 7/3: A short history of Battle River–Crowfoot
Weekly Writ 6/26: Poilievre sets himself the easiest byelection test — ever
The Numbers: Trouble or relief for Danielle Smith?
Weekly Writ 6/19: What to watch in Alberta's byelections
The Numbers: Should the Conservatives be worried?
Weekly Writ 6/12: Is Poilievre's polling a problem?
The Numbers: Carney's honeymoon continues
Weekly Writ 6/5: Alberta politics under the spotlight
The Numbers: Doug Ford, Canada's premier?
Election '25 Deep Dive: Is Western Canada now a red-blue fight?
The Numbers: Does Canada want to chuck Charles or keep the King?
Election '25 Deep Dive: How Atlantic Canada and Quebec delivered for Carney
The Numbers: Carney's cabinet, Poilievre's byelection
Election '25 Deep Dive: Where the Liberals lost their majority in Ontario
The Numbers: Wexit, Alberta-ta, Saskatchewants-out?
How the riding-level surprises tell one tale of the election
The Numbers: How long will this Parliament last?
How the polls did in the 2025 election
The Numbers: Post-mortem on an unprecedented election
Liberals win but just miss out on majority
Barring a polling upset, Mark Carney's Liberals will win
Seat-by-Seat Projections: Canada
Election Writ 4/26: Awaiting the final numbers
Election Writ 4/25: What's the Conservative path?
The Numbers: Who's going to win the election?
Election Writ 4/24: What can change in four days?
Ep. 145: Behind the scenes on the last days of a campaign
Election Writ 4/23: Conservatives aren't budging
Ep. #144: How elections are called
Election Writ 4/22: Liberals still favoured after flurry of new polling
The Numbers: How big a polling cushion do the Liberals have?
Election Writ 4/21: Conservatives aren't closing the gap in Ontario
Election Writ 4/19: The calm before the storm?
Election Writ 4/18: No knock-out in Round Two, either
The Numbers: Will the French debate change a tightening race?
Election Writ 4/17: No knock-out in Round One
Ep. #143: Where the polls are before the debates and where they go next
Election Writ 4/16: What's at stake in Quebec
Election Writ 4/15: Ontario is a problem for Pierre Poilievre
The Numbers: Keep calm and trust the averages
Election Writ 4/14: Don't miss the trend forest for the polling trees
Election Writ 4/12: How much can the polls move in two weeks?
Election Writ 4/11: Where have the polls moved in the last week?
The Numbers: Yes, we believe the polls
Election Writ 4/10: Believe the polls
Election Writ 4/9: Third parties dropping to historic lows
Ep. 142: When to dump your candidate — and dump on your opponents
Election Writ 4/8: Flatlining trends
The Numbers: Mind the polling gap
Election Writ 4/7: When polls disagree
Election Writ 4/5: The state of the race after two weeks
Election Writ 4/4: What impact could turnout have on the results?
The Numbers: Do the polls make sense?
Election Writ 4/3: The Bloc is in trouble
Ep. #141: Is it baked-in or could the polls change?
Election Writ 4/2: The Conservatives are stuck where it matters most
Election Writ 4/1: Liberals hit 200 seats
The Numbers: Liberals enter uncharted territory
Election Writ 3/31: Liberals keep ticking up in the polls
Election Writ 3/30: Is the race stabilizing?
Election Writ 3/29: Liberals win Week 1
Election Writ 3/28: Are the Conservatives in trouble in Ontario?
The Numbers: As NDP collapses, Carney hits new highs
Election Writ 3/27: Why the Liberals have moved ahead
Ep. #140: Parties plan, the election gods laugh
Election Writ 3/26: Why the NDP's number is the one to watch
Election Writ 3/25: Liberals grow as NDP collapses
The Numbers: The Liberal advantage is real
Election Writ 3/24: Just how solid is Mark Carney's lead?
The Numbers: The Liberals are...the favourites?
Ep. #139: The polls say it's a race
Projection Update: Liberals are now the favourite
Projection Update: It's (almost) a toss-up
The Numbers: Are you ready for an election?
Weekly Writ 3/12: After dominant leadership win, where will Carney run?
Liberal leadership race: Follow the money
The Numbers: Has the Liberal surge peaked already?
Projection Update: Polls settle into newly competitive race
The Numbers: About last night in Ontario...
Doug Ford on track to get that bigger mandate
The Numbers: The polls have gone crazy
Weekly Writ 2/26: Could Carney win a general election?
Election Writ 2/25: The race for 2nd place
Projection Update: 1-in-4 chance Conservatives fall short of majority
The Numbers: The NDP is in deep trouble
Weekly Writ 2/19: Carney's fundraising laps his rivals
Election Writ 2/18: Winners and losers from Ontario's debate
Projection Update: Gap keeps tightening as Conservatives drop below 200 seats
The Numbers: Is it a whole new race?
Weekly Writ 2/12: Are more Liberals opting out of the next election than normal?
Election Writ 2/11: Why a bigger mandate is a big ask from Ford
Projection Update: The Liberals are on the move
The Numbers: Something's happening in the polls
Weekly Writ 2/5: Conservatives have money to burn in 2025
#EveryElectionProject: Newfoundland and Labrador
Election Writ 2/4: Will the tariff pause trump Ford?
Projection Update: Liberal uptick, not surge, confirmed
The Numbers: Are the Liberals up a lot, a bit, or not at all?
Ep. #138: Is the political landscape shifting?
Weekly Writ 1/29: Leadership races and polling bumps
Projection Update: Waiting for corroboration
The Numbers: Will Ontario give Doug Ford a new mandate?
Weekly Writ 1/22: Is Ontario heading to the polls?
Projection Update: Signs of Liberal life, or a mirage?
The Numbers: Who's in, who's out, and who has a chance?
Weekly Writ 1/15: Liberal race firms up
Projection Update: Trudeau resignation hardly moves the dial
The Numbers: Now that Trudeau's out, who'll replace him?