Sitemap - 2025 - The Writ

The Numbers: How long will this Parliament last?

How the polls did in the 2025 election

The Numbers: Post-mortem on an unprecedented election

Liberals win but just miss out on majority

Barring a polling upset, Mark Carney's Liberals will win

Seat-by-Seat Projections: Canada

Election Writ 4/26: Awaiting the final numbers

Election Writ 4/25: What's the Conservative path?

The Numbers: Who's going to win the election?

Election Writ 4/24: What can change in four days?

Ep. 145: Behind the scenes on the last days of a campaign

Election Writ 4/23: Conservatives aren't budging

Ep. #144: How elections are called

Election Writ 4/22: Liberals still favoured after flurry of new polling

The Numbers: How big a polling cushion do the Liberals have?

Election Writ 4/21: Conservatives aren't closing the gap in Ontario

Election Writ 4/19: The calm before the storm?

Election Writ 4/18: No knock-out in Round Two, either

The Numbers: Will the French debate change a tightening race?

Election Writ 4/17: No knock-out in Round One

Ep. #143: Where the polls are before the debates and where they go next

Election Writ 4/16: What's at stake in Quebec

Election Writ 4/15: Ontario is a problem for Pierre Poilievre

The Numbers: Keep calm and trust the averages

Election Writ 4/14: Don't miss the trend forest for the polling trees

Election Writ 4/12: How much can the polls move in two weeks?

Election Writ 4/11: Where have the polls moved in the last week?

The Numbers: Yes, we believe the polls

Election Writ 4/10: Believe the polls

Election Writ 4/9: Third parties dropping to historic lows

Ep. 142: When to dump your candidate — and dump on your opponents

Election Writ 4/8: Flatlining trends

The Numbers: Mind the polling gap

Election Writ 4/7: When polls disagree

Election Writ 4/5: The state of the race after two weeks

Election Writ 4/4: What impact could turnout have on the results?

The Numbers: Do the polls make sense?

Election Writ 4/3: The Bloc is in trouble

Ep. #141: Is it baked-in or could the polls change?

Election Writ 4/2: The Conservatives are stuck where it matters most

Election Writ 4/1: Liberals hit 200 seats

The Numbers: Liberals enter uncharted territory

Election Writ 3/31: Liberals keep ticking up in the polls

Election Writ 3/30: Is the race stabilizing?

Election Writ 3/29: Liberals win Week 1

Election Writ 3/28: Are the Conservatives in trouble in Ontario?

The Numbers: As NDP collapses, Carney hits new highs

Election Writ 3/27: Why the Liberals have moved ahead

Ep. #140: Parties plan, the election gods laugh

Election Writ 3/26: Why the NDP's number is the one to watch

Election Writ 3/25: Liberals grow as NDP collapses

The Numbers: The Liberal advantage is real

Election Writ 3/24: Just how solid is Mark Carney's lead?

And they're off!

The Numbers: The Liberals are...the favourites?

Ep. #139: The polls say it's a race

Projection Update: Liberals are now the favourite

Projection Update: It's (almost) a toss-up

The Numbers: Are you ready for an election?

Weekly Writ 3/12: After dominant leadership win, where will Carney run?

Liberal leadership race: Follow the money

The Numbers: Has the Liberal surge peaked already?

Projection Update: Polls settle into newly competitive race

The Numbers: About last night in Ontario...

Doug Ford on track to get that bigger mandate

Ontario Election Projection

The Numbers: The polls have gone crazy

Weekly Writ 2/26: Could Carney win a general election?

Election Writ 2/25: The race for 2nd place

Projection Update: 1-in-4 chance Conservatives fall short of majority

The Numbers: The NDP is in deep trouble

Weekly Writ 2/19: Carney's fundraising laps his rivals

Election Writ 2/18: Winners and losers from Ontario's debate

Projection Update: Gap keeps tightening as Conservatives drop below 200 seats

The Numbers: Is it a whole new race?

Weekly Writ 2/12: Are more Liberals opting out of the next election than normal?

Election Writ 2/11: Why a bigger mandate is a big ask from Ford

Projection Update: The Liberals are on the move

The Numbers: Something's happening in the polls

Weekly Writ 2/5: Conservatives have money to burn in 2025

#EveryElectionProject: Newfoundland and Labrador

Election Writ 2/4: Will the tariff pause trump Ford?

Projection Update: Liberal uptick, not surge, confirmed

The Numbers: Are the Liberals up a lot, a bit, or not at all?

Ep. #138: Is the political landscape shifting?

Weekly Writ 1/29: Leadership races and polling bumps

Projection Update: Waiting for corroboration

The Numbers: Will Ontario give Doug Ford a new mandate?

Weekly Writ 1/22: Is Ontario heading to the polls?

Projection Update: Signs of Liberal life, or a mirage?

The Numbers: Who's in, who's out, and who has a chance?

Weekly Writ 1/15: Liberal race firms up

Projection Update: Trudeau resignation hardly moves the dial

The Numbers: Now that Trudeau's out, who'll replace him?

Weekly Writ 1/8: Election countdown begins

Can you predict what'll happen in 2025?