Weekly Writ 10/16: The numbers behind the PCs' upset win in NL
Plus, what went wrong with the polls in Newfoundland and Labrador?
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning.
This week, I’m diving deep into the results of the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election. What was behind Tony Wakeham’s unexpected PC majority victory? And why did the polls not see it coming?
Let’s get right into it. But first, here is what else is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of a fifth contestant for the NDP leadership, plus the governing Yukon Liberals fail to field a full slate, we get a peek at spending in the 2025 Ontario election and get a result in St. John’s delayed mayoral race.
Polls on federal party standings, the Carney-Trump relationship and views on pipelines in British Columbia. Plus, we get a look at some Calgary and Edmonton polls before Monday’s elections.
#EveryElectionProject: The 1992 territorial election in Yukon.
Upcoming milestones for François Legault, Wab Kinew and David Eby.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Intensified rural-urban divide delivers upset win for NL PCs
On Tuesday, Tony Wakeham led his Progressive Conservatives to an unexpected victory over the incumbent Liberals, who were under their third leader since first coming to power in 2015. The PC win is largely attributable to the party’s gains in Newfoundland and Labrador’s rural and remote communities, as the province’s politics increasingly look like those in the rest of the country.