Barring a polling upset, Mark Carney's Liberals will win
Some doubt remains about a majority victory, but the data suggests the Conservatives have come up short in key battlegrounds.
After a whirlwind four months that saw the resignation of Justin Trudeau, a leadership contest to replace him won by Mark Carney, a return of Donald Trump to the White House, tariff and global market turmoil and the reversal of a 24-point lead for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, the once-doomed Liberal Party appears poised to win a fourth consecutive term in office, a feat that seemed unimaginable when the calendar flipped to 2025.
But, here we are. Though the polls registered a tightening of the margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives in the closing days, Carney’s Liberals have retained enough of an advantage in some key battlegrounds to be the heavy favourites not only to win re-election, but to potentially secure a majority government as well.
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Before we dive into what we can expect to happen in today’s federal election, we really do need to step back and marvel at what has happened since the beginning of the year. Here’s what the Poll Tracker looked like when, on January 6, Trudeau announced he would be stepping down as Liberal leader:
The Conservatives were leading with 44% support across the country and the Liberals were in free-fall, having dropped to 20% — just a single point above the NDP. The Conservatives were projected to win at least 206 seats and as many as 244. The odds of a Liberal victory were less than 1%.
Now, that same chart, but with the starting date set at January 6.
There were multiple factors that contributed to this turn-around, probably the biggest reversal of fortunes in modern Canadian political history. One was the resignation of Trudeau. His departure made it possible for some Liberals to reconsider the party again. The arrival of Carney — first as a candidate to replace Trudeau, then as the frontrunner — further boosted the Liberals, pulling away NDP supporters who had parked their vote with Jagmeet Singh’s party while Trudeau was still prime minister.
Then there was the volatility caused by Trump’s return to the presidency. His calls for Canada to become the 51st state prompted a rally-round-the-flag effect for insulted Canadians. His tariff policy caused uncertainty and economic turmoil. Poilievre’s Conservatives found themselves flat-footed and unable to grasp the moment that was before them, but Carney’s experience and calm demeanour contrasted positively not only with the Conservative leader, but with Trump himself.
Carney’s surge in the polls was similar to the honeymoons that new prime ministers John Turner and Kim Campbell enjoyed in 1984 and 1993. But in both of those cases, the honeymoon ended quickly and those leaders led their respective parties to their worst results ever up to that point. But the honeymoon didn’t end for Carney. His bubble never burst.
And that’s why the Liberals are the favourites heading into election day. The Poll Tracker awards the party an 89% chance of winning the most seats and a 70% chance of securing a majority government. You can look at the final projection in the Poll Tracker in detail here. Calls for each individual riding can be found by clicking on the banner below:
But while the numbers look good for the Liberals (and bad for everyone else), there is still a fair bit of uncertainty in the projections — and the potential for things to go not quite as expected. Let’s take a look at what to watch for each party, stating with the incumbents.
