Election Writ 4/25: What's the Conservative path?
A lot would have to go their way, but it isn't impossible.
It’s still pretty quiet on the polling front, but that will change very soon. Today’s update to the Poll Tracker, which only included the two morning trackers from Nanos Research and Mainstreet Research and yesterday’s from Liaison Strategies, has hardly changed the dial.
Also in today’s newsletter: Another rundown of where the leaders are, and why.
Mainstreet put the gap at a little over two points, while Nanos put it at a little over four points. Liaison yesterday had it at five points. Not much change.
So, we’ll keep it brief this morning as there will be lots to chew on over the weekend.
While we wait, let’s dive into what the Conservative path to a victory could look like. The Poll Tracker’s likely seat-ceiling for each party, which awards them all the tosses, tops out at 144 for the Conservatives. That would not be enough to form a government as the Liberal floor, in which they lose all the tosses, is 165.
But the maximum ceiling for the Conservatives, which awards them not only all the tosses but all their “possible seats”, puts them at 163. That’s enough for a minority government. So what are those seats?