Election Writ 9/22: Is the urban/rural divide coming to Newfoundland & Lab.?

The federal election points to a new emerging trend in the province.

Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador.

An unusual thing happened in the last federal election in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The Liberals won four seats in the province, three on the Avalon Peninsula and one in Labrador. The Conservatives won three seats. One Conservative win was in western Newfoundland, one was in central Newfoundland and the last included a small portion of the Avalon Peninsula, as well as the Burin and Bonavista peninsulas and part of the northeast coast.

But that made for an unusual map. Throughout the history of Newfoundland and Labrador since it joined Confederation, never before had the bulk of the Avalon Peninsula voted Liberal while the rest of Newfoundland voted Conservative. It’s often been the opposite, with the Conservatives (or the PCs) winning Avalon and the Liberals taking the rest of the island. At the very least, the Conservatives wouldn’t win in Newfoundland without at least some of the Avalon Peninsula, while the Liberals wouldn’t win in Newfoundland without at least some of the rest of the island.

The shift in vote share in the last election across Newfoundland and Labrador’s seven ridings shows how different parts of the province moved very differently.

While Labrador (not for the first time) was doing its own thing, the Conservatives made significant gains in (going west to east) Long Range Mountains, Central Newfoundland and Terra Nova–The Peninsulas. The Liberals either lost support or made marginal gains.

But while that was happening west of the Avalon Peninsula, the Liberals made significant gains in Avalon, Cape Spear and St. John’s East. Part of this was the steeper drop for the New Democrats, which went the Liberals’ way. But St. John’s and the surrounding area moved to the Liberals while the rest of Newfoundland moved to the Conservatives.

This would be par for the course anywhere else in Canada — the urban areas have long been moving left while the rural areas move right. But Newfoundland had been the exception, both provincially and federally.

When Joey Smallwood’s Liberals were winning their huge majorities, St. John’s voted Tory. The backbone of the PC governments of Frank Moores and Brian Peckford was St. John’s. The Liberals did better in St. John’s under Clyde Wells and Brian Tobin, but it was the rest of the province that secured their majorities. Then the PCs under Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale all but swept the Avalon Peninsula, and when they didn’t it was because the NDP was winning a few seats in St. John’s.

But over the last decade the Liberals have been able to rely more and more on St. John’s. And the results of the byelections in 2024 (where the PCs flipped two seats on the north shore of Newfoundland and the Liberals flipped one in the St. John’s suburbs) continued this shift. The federal election put an exclamation mark on this emerging pattern.

We don’t yet have any polling numbers to tell us if the same thing can be expected in this election campaign. If we don’t get any polls between now and October 14, then at least I know what I’ll be looking for on election night: if John Hogan’s Liberals win, will it be because St. John’s and the Avalon Peninsula got redder?

Also in today’s newsletter: A look at the open seats that could flip in this election and what the leaders have been pitching to voters during the first week. Plus, we take a look at the three districts where the leaders are running.

ELECTION NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Liberals with most open seats

Incumbency goes a long way in Newfoundland and Labrador. For all the advantages the Liberals have going into this election, they are hamstrung to some extent by their lack of incumbents on the ballot.