Election '25 Deep Dive: Is Western Canada now a red-blue fight?

Conservatives still dominate most of Western Canada, but there are now far fewer blue-orange fights.

As is fitting for a deep dive, this article is lengthy with many charts and maps. So, it might be cut-off by your email provider. If this happens, you should be able to expand to see the rest. You can also read the article at thewrit.ca and via the Substack app.

The Conservatives maintained their hold on Western Canada in April’s election and the inability of the Liberals to win more seats between Vancouver and Winnipeg contributed to their failure to secure a majority government. That’s not new — but what did change in the 2025 election is that the Liberals supplanted the New Democrats in most of the regions that had previously been blue-orange contests.

Does this mean that Western Canada is polarizing between the Conservatives and the Liberals just as much as the rest of the country has?

This is the third and final instalment in a three-part series of deep dives into the 2025 federal election results. We’ve already delved into Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Today, we’ll close with another series of charts and maps, this time about Western Canada and the North.

There was a tremendous amount of change in Western Canada in party support but, outside of British Columbia, it did not produce a tremendous amount of change in the seat count. Compared to 2021, the net gain for the Conservatives in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba was all of three seats — precisely the number of extra seats that were added to Alberta’s allotment. The Liberals also made a net gain of three seats that corresponded with the NDP’s drop of three.

British Columbia, however, was another matter entirely. The New Democrats shed 10 seats in the province, splitting them evenly between the Liberals and the Conservatives (who, again, picked up the extra seat that was added to B.C.).

But below the surface, the Liberals gained between 12 and 16 points in the Western Canadian provinces, with the NDP dropping the same amount. The Conservatives were up between six and eight points, which corresponded with a drop of between five and seven points for the People’s Party. There was more variety in movement within regions, but broadly speaking Western Canada saw a transference of NDP votes to the Liberals and PPC votes to the Conservatives.

There were a few record-breaking performances. The Liberal had their best results in Alberta and British Columbia since 1968, while the Conservatives had their best result in Saskatchewan since 1917. The NDP hit a low not seen since 2000 in Alberta and B.C. and had its worst performances — ever, including during the CCF days — in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

There was a lot going on, even if the seat flips were relatively limited in number east of the Rockies. So, let’s dive in one more time.

Programming note: Before delving into the numbers in greater detail, let me provide you with an update on what’s next from The Writ. With this three-part series now concluding, The Writ will put the 2025 election to bed and revert to its usual schedule. Starting next week, The Weekly Writ newsletter will be back every Thursday morning (instead of on Wednesdays, which was the case prior to the election). New episodes of The Numbers will be published on Tuesday afternoons. From time to time on the days in between, you can expect other analyses and new episodes of The Writ Podcast. I’m also planning on publishing some new federal and provincial projections in the coming months. Stay tuned — and thanks for your continuing support!

Liberals, Conservatives make gains in Manitoba

After not a single seat changed hands in Manitoba in the 2021 election, three of the 14 ridings in the province went a different way in 2025.