Election Writ 10/13: Will it be close in NL, or not close at all?

Polls suggest a Liberal lead, but there's little consensus beyond that.

Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Tomorrow is election day in Newfoundland and Labrador — and this election looks tough to call. In today’s newsletter, I take a look at the polls that have (finally) been published during this campaign and try to make some sense of them, as well as a seat projection using the data at hand.

I also take a look at the province’s bellwether seats that have decided elections going back decades, plus those that could prove to be the tipping points in this election.

ELECTION NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Newfoundland and Labrador’s bellwethers

Four districts in the province have been voting with the governing party for decades — and one of them can even trace backing the winning party in every election all the way back to Confederation.