Election Writ 4/24: What can change in four days?
The margin is a little tighter. Could it get even more tighter?
With only a few days left in the election campaign, we’re now waiting for the final polls from all the major pollsters. Expect a rush of them starting on Saturday through to the end of Sunday. I’ll be updating the Poll Tracker once daily until Sunday, when I’ll likely have multiple updates right up to the wire.
But should we expect things to shift around much between now and then?
Also in today’s newsletter: A new poll out of Atlantic Canada, plus we look at where the leaders are today (and why). And could Pierre Poilievre really be in danger of losing his seat?
The polls we got this morning don’t tell us much, but could make some Liberals a little nervous. Nanos Research and Mainstreet Research put the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at either 39% or 40% — rather typical of what we’ve seen over the last few days. The trend lines aren’t heading in the same direction, however, as Nanos finds the gap shrinking by four points over the last three days and Mainstreet sees it widening by three points.
We also got a series of polls from the Innovative Research Group that have been conducted on various days over the last week or so. They showed some curious regional results, but the last of the three polls put the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 38% apiece. IRG has been one of the few pollsters throughout this campaign to put the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals, so it is not a shock to see them showing that once again.
While the IRG put the Conservatives ahead by three points in both Ontario and B.C., Nanos and Liaison Strategies (in yesterday’s report) put the gap at eight points in Ontario — which is more along the lines of what other pollsters have found. But they also had B.C. as a toss-up. So, this could plant some seeds of doubt in Liberal minds that they are poised to make as many gains in British Columbia as expected.
The proof for a Bloc surge remains rather thin, however. The Liberals led in the Nanos and Liaison polls by 14-15 points, with the Bloc around 24-27%. IRG put the gap at just eight points and the Bloc at 30%, but Mainstreet (in its paywalled regionals) had an even wider Liberal lead than what Nanos and Liaison have found. So, it’s still a wash.
But with the Poll Tracker now showing the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives at just under four points, we’re now entering territory where a normal polling error could upend expectations quite significantly. The Liberals are still projected to win a majority government with a lead of 3.7 points, but if that falls further the odds of a minority will increase. What happened with the Poll Tracker in 2019 and 2021 is instructive as we look ahead to Monday.