Election Writ 2/18: Winners and losers from Ontario's debate
Plus, the candidate slates are finalized.
Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaign in Ontario.
After every debate, there are usually two questions that are asked about each leader’s performance.
First, did any of them score a “knock-out punch”? And second, did they do what they needed to do on the debate stage?
The answer to the first question is almost always “no”. Rare are the debates that are settled in a single moment — rarer still is that moment identified during the debate itself. Even Brian Mulroney’s famous “you had an option, sir” moment with John Turner in the 1984 debate was not instantly recognized as the knock-out moment of that debate.
Nevertheless, no such moment in last night’s debate between Doug Ford, Bonnie Crombie, Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner struck me as having the potential of being a knock-out punch. So, as is usually the case, the answer to the first question is indeed a “no”.
Now, to the second question. Here’s my (admittedly subjective) view.
Doug Ford was Doug Ford. He was the same Ford we’ve seen in previous debates. He stayed tight to his message track, dismissed the other leaders as bad for the economy and didn’t get himself into much trouble. He didn’t shine, but he also didn’t fumble. As the front runner with a double-digit lead in the polls looking to avoid anything that could cost him this victory, he accomplished his mission.
I’d say that Mike Schreiner also achieved his more limited goals. As I discuss below, the Greens’ primary objective in this campaign is to re-elect their two MPPs and, with some luck, elect a third. Schreiner managed to squeeze in a mention of Aislinn Clancy in Kitchener Centre and Matt Richter of Parry Sound–Muskoka, the Greens’ two target seats beyond Schreiner’s, in his closing statement. He effectively made his arguments during the debate with earnestness and emotion, but was also largely ignored by the other leaders. I’m not sure if he converted many new voters over to his cause but the Greens can be pleased with his performance.
The New Democrats should also be pleased with how Marit Stiles did. If her goal was to be the better performer between herself and Bonnie Crombie, then I think that was a mission amply accomplished. Stiles was less nervous and was clearer in her statements than Crombie. She came off as confident and likeable. But if her goal was to stand out and help propel her party forward, I’m not sure if she did enough to significantly change this election.
I don’t think Bonnie Crombie did, either. She appeared more uneasy and nervous than any of the other leaders and had a tense, frantic energy about her that neither Schreiner nor Stiles did (let alone the sleepy energy of Ford). She most forcefully went after Ford but her attacks verged on being over-the-top. She seemed to be trying to force a moment more than Stiles was and I don’t think she succeeded in creating one.
The biggest problem for both Crombie and Stiles is that few of their attacks on Ford seemed to hit home. He brushed them off relatively easily and pivoted to counter-attacks. The PCs need to lose support in order to lose the election — consolidating a little more of the anti-PC vote behind one party could narrow the gap but the PCs are not losing an election when they have over 40% of the vote locked up. Stiles might have done a better job trying to make the case that the anti-PC vote should coalesce behind her, but neither she nor Crombie did much that I could see to whittle down the PC number.
If we’re grading on a curve, then I’d give Ford and Schreiner an A for achieving their goals, a B to Stiles for giving voters a good first impression and a C to Crombie for surviving but not thriving. To change this election, though, either Stiles or Crombie needed an A+ and Ford needed an F. I don’t think that happened.
Now, to what is in this instalment of the Election Writ:
News on the slates of candidates and whether the withdrawal of the NDP’s candidate in Eglinton–Lawrence could decide the outcome. Also, where do the Greens have their best chances of making gains?
Polls show little signs of movement. Or do they?
PCs win big if the election were held today.
This week in Ontario election history.