Doug Ford on track to get that bigger mandate
But which party will finish second in the seats?
The early election in Ontario came a little earlier than expected, as Doug Ford dropped the writ at the end of January in the face of tariff threats from the U.S. president. Those threats gave the Ford PCs a rationale for an early election call, something they lacked when rumours swirled — long before Donald Trump won the presidential election — that Ontarians would be going to the polls in early 2025.
On Day One, Ford asked voters for a bigger mandate in order to take on Trump and outlast his administration. On Day Twenty-Eight, it looks like he’ll get it.
But there are still some questions that will only be answered once the ballot boxes are opened tonight. The first is whether the Progressive Conservatives will really get that bigger mandate and make history. No single premier has ever won three consecutive majority governments while also increasing the size of his or her caucus each time.
The second is, well, about second. Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals have enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls over Marit Stiles’s New Democrats for that second spot throughout the campaign. But there are lingering questions about whether or not that lead is big enough to give the Liberals more seats. In 2022, the Liberals had 0.1 percentage points more support than the NDP across Ontario, but the NDP won nearly four times as many seats. The NDP’s vote efficiency is remarkable and it could still save them tonight. But has Crombie done enough to put the Liberals back into second place and avoid a third consecutive third-place finish?
I posted my final projection for the Ontario election earlier this morning, and the numbers are stark. The PCs are on track for a big majority but the runner-up position is on a knife’s edge.
A full breakdown of the Ontario projection, including seat-by-seat calls, is available for subscribers here.
You can also catch me tonight on CBC Radio, where I’ll be going through the results as soon as the polls close at 9 PM ET.
Now, let’s dive into what I’ll be watching.
