Weekly Writ 7/10: Flipping pancakes easier than flipping seats in Calgary
Only a few ridings might realistically be up for grabs in Calgary in the next election. Plus, Canadians hardly recognize the potential field of NDP leadership candidates.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning.
In the doldrums of every political summer, the Calgary Stampede arrives to liven things up.
Every politician worth his or her salt has donned a belt buckle and a cowboy hat and dutifully posted a photo of themselves to demonstrate their Western bonafides — regardless of whether they are Western or not. Who wore it best? Who flipped a pancake correctly? This is what passes for political commentary in early July.
But it does mean that politicians across the country have converged on Calgary. Two of them in particular have a lot to prove. Both Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney grew up in Alberta but spent the bulk of their adult lives working and living in Ottawa.
Carney, now prime minister, is aiming to address the roots of Western Canadian grievances and make good on the promises he made to a province that in April gave the Liberal Party the highest share of its vote in any election since 1968. Poilievre, now the seatless leader of the Conservatives, is aiming to win himself a seat in Battle River–Crowfoot, a sprawling riding that stretches to within 50 kilometres of Calgary.
While the goals of the politicking both have done during the Stampede go well beyond the boundaries of the city, their visit does give us an excuse to take a look at the results of the last election and ask ourselves a simple question: is Calgary going to be a battleground in the next election?
It proved to be less hotly-contested than expected, with the Conservatives winning 10 of 11 seats in Calgary. The Liberals’ George Chahal, the incumbent in the newly-created riding of Calgary McKnight, went down to defeat, but the Liberals made up for that loss with Corey Hogan’s victory in Calgary Confederation.
Looking at the results of the last election, there were only three seats that were decided by small margins.
Calgary Confederation was the tightest race in city, with Hogan winning by 1.8 points over the Conservatives. Calgary McKnight was also close, with the Conservatives winning by 3.1 points, while Calgary Centre was another tight race decided by just 4.4 points. Beyond that, however, the Conservatives won by at least 17.9 percentage points — the margin in Calgary Skyview. The Conservatives won most of Calgary by 20 points or more.
The challenge for the Liberals in growing their holdings in Calgary is that the Conservatives took more than 50% in all but two of the 11 ridings across the city. The collapse of the NDP vote throughout Calgary means that there is no second riding in which the Liberals would have won had they taken more of the NDP vote. In order to win a second or third seat in Calgary, the Liberals will need to win over some Conservatives.
So, Carney has his work cut out for him. And, had he managed it, a perfect pancake flip alone probably isn’t going to do the trick.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of the kick-off of a provincial byelection in Quebec, some dissension within the NDP, a second and third leadership candidate for the B.C. Greens and a territorial premier opts against re-offering.
Polls show the Liberals widening their lead over the Conservatives and that the potential contenders for the NDP leadership are largely unknown. Plus, Doug Ford continues to cruise in Ontario.
#EveryElectionProject: Rodmond Roblin’s last election as Manitoba premier in 1914.
Milestone for Danielle Smith.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Quebec byelection called in Arthabaska
Neither the Toronto–St. Paul’s or LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections — on their own — took down Justin Trudeau. But the Liberals’ defeats in these two (normally) safe ridings hammered home what the polls were showing. Without those two byelections, it’s conceivable that the chain of events that ended with Trudeau’s resignation in January might not have occurred.
This brings me to the upcoming Quebec provincial byelection in Arthabaska.