And they're off!
Where things stand as the race begins.
Earlier today, Prime Minister Mark Carney met the governor general and dissolved the 44th Parliament, setting April 28 as the day that Canadians will be going to the polls.
And, unexpectedly, the Liberal leader heads into the campaign as the favourite to win it.
He’s not an overwhelming favourite, however. The polls suggest that the Liberals would win the most seats — and very possibly a majority government — if an election were held today. But an election won’t be held today.
We’ve all heard before how the polls are a mere snapshot. And it’s true. But they are also a starting point. Each party enters this campaign in a different position. If the next five weeks are the equivalent of a 100-metre sprint, then some parties begin the race with their starting blocks closer to the finish line than the others.
Throughout the campaign, I’ll be updating the CBC’s Poll Tracker on a daily basis (or at least on any day that a new poll is published). The seat-by-seat projections will be available to subscribers and updated on a daily basis as well.
I’ll dissect the numbers here on The Writ in my daily newsletters, which will be published in the mid-to-late mornings. Those Election Writ newsletters will also have some news and analysis from the campaign trail, regional spotlights and a dash of history from the #EveryElectionProject.
But let’s start today by taking a look at the national numbers. We’ll then dive down into the regions and some of the seats to watch — at least on Day One.
The Liberals now lead in the Poll Tracker with 37.5%, putting them very narrowly ahead of the Conservatives at 37.1%. The NDP trails in third with just 11.6%.
It does seem that the last pre-election polls have settled into a place where the Liberals are somewhere between 36% and 42% but that their forward momentum has either halted or slowed. The Conservatives have been between 36% and 39% in nearly all recent polls, while the NDP is somewhere between 9% and 13%.
The close race in the polls is not reflected in the seat projections. The Liberals are the strong favourites to win the most seats with these kinds of numbers — if they hold, of course.
The Liberals are projected to win 174 seats, putting them just over the threshold for a majority government. The Conservatives trail with 134 seats, followed by 26 for the Bloc Québécois, seven for the NDP and two for the Greens. The likely range for the Liberals stretches from 146 to 199 seats, so there is a lot of overlap with both the Conservatives and a strong majority victory. The Conservatives, however, top out at 159 seats in their likely range. A Conservative majority government is tough to envision when 1) the race is this close and 2) the Liberals’ support is this high.
The Liberals lost the popular vote in each of the last two elections, but both times they also formed substantial minority governments. It’s a reminder that the national polling numbers only tell a portion of the story. It’s how things break down regionally that decide elections.
So, let’s dive into how things are looking across the country.