Election Writ 2/11: Why a bigger mandate is a big ask from Ford
How Doug Ford would make Ontario history with a third consecutive victory.
Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaign in Ontario.
When Doug Ford launched this Ontario election campaign, he asked voters to give his Progressive Conservatives a bigger mandate to help him take on Donald Trump.
If they gave it to him, and with two victories already under his belt, it would give Ford something no other Ontario premier has ever gotten before.
In the 2022 election, Ford’s PCs improved upon their 2018 performance by winning 83 seats, a jump of seven seats from the previous campaign. Their share of the vote also increased slightly from their first to their second majority victories.
Winning three majority governments in a row is something no party has done in Ontario since 1971. That winning streak spanned two leaders, though. John Robarts won two majorities in 1963 and 1967 and then Bill Davis won a third in 1971. The last individual party leader to win three consecutive majorities was Leslie Frost, who pulled off the feat in 1959.
But to not only win three majority governments but to have each majority government be larger than last? No Ontario premier has done that.
Howard Ferguson came the closest. He led the Conservatives to three consecutive majority victories in 1923, 1926 and 1929, growing his party’s share of the vote in each election. But he lost a handful of seats in 1926.
If the current polling trends hold through to February 27, then Doug Ford will make history by being the first Ontario premier to win three majority governments in a row while also increasing the size of his caucus each time. With the current projections awarding the PCs 93 seats, 10 more than the PCs won in 2022, he even has some margin for error.
Ford won’t be the first Canadian premier to achieve this milestone if he is successful — a handful of others have done it, including the likes of Robert Stanfield in Nova Scotia, Peter Lougheed in Alberta and Joey Smallwood in Newfoundland and Labrador. But, when it comes to electoral prowess, that is good company to keep.
Looking for the Ontario Election Projection? You can find it right here:
Now, to what is in this instalment of the Election Writ:
How the Ontario Liberals could get to official party status again, plus news on when at least two debates will be held.
The polls showed little movement over the last week, though Doug Ford’s personal ratings have soured.
A PC majority and a tight race for second place if the election were held today.
This week in Ontario election history.