The Numbers: Are the Liberals up a lot, a bit, or not at all?
We try to make some sense of the polls, both federally and in Ontario.
One thing seems clear these days: the polls aren’t very clear these days.
While there appears to be some indication of a Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau’s resignation, there are big disagreements about just how big that uptick is. Not only is there a discrepancy in the federal polls, there are diverging polls in Ontario’s election campaign, too. Could the two be related — and just what can we say with any certainty?
We also take a look at the state of the Liberal leadership race and a new poll out of Quebec that has good news for the Bloc Québécois and Parti Québécois but, conversely, bad news for the Quebec sovereignty movement.
Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.
Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:
Interesting takes with the early and late federal election call forecasts. The early forecast seems more plausible, because it removes control from Pierre Poilievre's hands, and that seems to be the one thing that reliably drives the man to distraction.