Election Writ 2/25: The race for 2nd place
The Liberals and NDP have some tough fights against the PCs — and each other.
Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaign in Ontario.
We’re in the final stretch and this will be the last Election Writ before the votes are counted on Thursday. So, here’s what to expect from me over the next few days:
Wednesday: In addition to the usual Weekly Writ, a new episode of The Numbers will be out in the afternoon. It’ll be our “regular” episode for the week and we’ll give our last thoughts on the polling trends in Ontario, along with the latest federal polls. Our weekly mailbag episode will also be available for our Patreon members here.
Thursday: As always, I’ll have an election day Grenier Political Report out on Thursday morning with my setup for what to expect as the votes are counted. When the polls close, I hope you’ll tune into CBC Radio at 9 PM ET, where I’ll be keeping listeners up-to-the-minute on riding results and providing my own analysis of the numbers as they come in.
Friday: After a few hours of sleep, Philippe and I will be back with a bonus episode of The Numbers, where we’ll share our reactions to the results of the Ontario election.
Lots to look out for! And, of course, I’ll continue to update the Ontario Election Projection. My final projections will be posted on Thursday morning.
And there’s more! If you missed it yesterday, Philippe and I recorded our monthly special episode of The Numbers. This month, we went across the Ontario election map and discussed our expectations for every riding in the province. All 124 of them! These monthly episodes are another bonus for members of our joint Patreon, so if you’d like to listen you can join here.
Okay, now that the housekeeping is out of the way, let’s get to to what is in this (final) instalment of the Election Writ:
News on turnout, candidate drop-outs and where the race for second place will be decided.
Polls show little change since the debate, though something might be happening in Toronto.
A PC majority, but not necessarily much bigger than last time, if the election were held today.
This week in Ontario election history.
ELECTION NEWS AND ANALYSIS
The seats that will decide second place
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have led by a wide margin from the first day of this campaign. It’ll be a huge surprise if the PCs fail to win another majority — polls can be off, but they’re rarely that off.
Instead, the big fight will be over who finishes in second place at Queen’s Park. The polls are pretty unanimous that the OLP is likely to get more votes than the NDP, but it’s less clear which of the two will win more seats.