Weekly Writ 8/28: Kinew, Ford and the politics of moderation
In an age of polarization, is the centrist king?
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning.
These days, it seems like two provincial premiers in particular can do no wrong.
A poll conducted in the spring suggested that Ontario’s Doug Ford is among the most popular politicians in the country. A new poll published this week (more on that below) shows support for his Progressive Conservatives to be the highest any party has enjoyed in Ontario in decades.
Meanwhile, Manitoba’s Wab Kinew continues to top the premier approval ratings rankings and, on Tuesday night, nearly pulled off a stellar byelection upset in a part of the province his New Democrats have never won. (Again, more on that below.)
Kinew and Ford might not have a tremendous amount of policy overlap. But they do have a few things in common that appear to be working for them. Both are moderates, particularly in relation to their party brands. They’ve also found themselves alongside Mark Carney in his negotiations with the U.S. president while still voicing support for a harder line than the prime minister might be able to do. They are both authentic politicians who are able to crack a joke while not being too slick. Though they can have a sharp tongue when it comes to their provincial opponents, they aren’t afraid to reach across the aisle at the federal level to Carney’s Liberals — the kind of cross-partisanship that Canadians tend to appreciate.
That approach might be even more attractive at a time when Canadians have a front row seat to the intense partisanship of American politics and the damage it is doing to that country’s democracy. That might be why relative moderates like Kinew, Ford and Carney seem to be doing so well north of the border.
The contrast in how Carney’s opponents approach their provincial cousins is notable. The federal New Democrats seem keen to cozy-up to their more successful junior partners. They’re fortunate that Kinew, unlike New Democrats in Alberta and Saskatchewan, is willing to return the favour. The next NDP convention will be held in Winnipeg. Don’t be surprised if Kinew makes an appearance.
It’ll be up to the members of the party, however, as to whether the next leader of the federal NDP should follow the more moderate approach of Western Canadian New Democrats or if the party should stay on (or move further to) the left of the political spectrum.
(While a very minor thing, I have noted that the federal NDP is copying some of the Manitoba NDP’s style. Take a look at this social media post about the leadership race that the federal NDP put up earlier this week. Look familiar?)
The federal Conservatives have taken a different tack. They’ve had a very public feud with the Ontario Progressive Conservatives going back years, a feud that came to a head during the last campaign when Doug Ford expressed criticism of Poilievre. The PCs have since scheduled their next convention for the same weekend as the federal Conservative convention in January. The Ontario premier has praised Carney and even encouraged Poilievre to be on ‘Team Canada’ to help the prime minister in his negotiations with the United States. There’s no love lost between the two parties — or even their electorates. A recent poll found that 16% of Ontarians voted for the PCs in February’s provincial election but did not vote for the Conservatives in the April federal election.
While the federal NDP would desperately like to capture some of Kinew’s magic, the federal Conservatives seem unwilling to mend fences with the Ontario PCs. (An internecine feud with Nova Scotia’s Tim Houston, another moderate Tory, emerged in the final week of the last campaign as well.)
When the federal Conservatives were leading by 20 points or more in the polls, perhaps they were justified in thinking they needed to take no lessons from their provincial cousins. But that was at a time when the electorate was polarized and tempers were running high against the Trudeau government. Now that moderation seems to be in vogue in Canada once again, the Conservatives might want to consider taking a page out of what is making the Centrist Kings so successful.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of a near-upset by Wab Kinew’s NDP in a Manitoba byelection, plus Pierre Poilievre’s final score in Battle River–Crowfoot is confirmed.
What to make of that new poll showing the Conservatives ahead, plus Doug Ford hits a new high in Ontario not seen in over 20 years.
#EveryElectionProject: The New Brunswick Liberals score a wartime win in 1944.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Manitoba PCs barely hold on to safe seat
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew talked a big game ahead of Tuesday’s Spruce Woods byelection, saying that his New Democrats were going to try to win it. It sounded like bluster. But the NDP nearly pulled it off.