Weekly Writ 12/18: What to watch in 2026
All the ingredients are there for a year full of political drama.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning.
It’ll be hard to top 2025 as a year of sheer political craziness.
Justin Trudeau resigned. Mark Carney replaced him. Pierre Poilievre lost his lead. Mark Carney won an election. Jagmeet Singh lost his seat and stepped down. Pierre Poilievre also lost his seat and had to win one back. He then lost one floor-crosser. And then another.
At the provincial level, Doug Ford called and then won a snap election and Tony Wakeham scored a surprise upset. The Quebec Liberals chose a new leader and will now have to choose another one. John Rustad and Bonnie Crombie tried to hold on to the leaderships of their parties until they couldn’t.
So, 2025 will be a hard act to follow. But there’s still plenty of potential for drama in 2026. Here’s what to watch in the year to come:
Will Mark Carney get his majority, one way or another?
The defection of Michael Ma (more on that below) has boosted the Liberals to 171 seats, just one shy of a majority government. Ma’s floor-crossing came just after the House of Commons adjourned for the holidays and there is rampant speculation that there will be others. While one more floor-crosser would do the trick for Carney, a majority of one is hardly a majority at all — especially with a series of resignations expected in the coming months. So, will Mark Carney and the Liberals be able to lure some more MPs over to their side to give them a majority with a little cushion? Or, if not, will the Liberals try to force the matter by going back to the polls and securing a majority government the old-fashioned way?
Opposition parties settling their leadership issues
Somewhat related to the potential for a 2026 federal election will be the leadership questions facing the Conservatives and the New Democrats. The NDP will settle its leadership issue on March 29 by choosing the successor to Jagmeet Singh. That will mark a change of direction for the New Democrats regardless of who wins. The dynamic for the NDP in the House if one of the seatless contestants (Avi Lewis or Rob Ashton, most likely) wins will also be something to keep an eye on. Would a Lewis or Ashton try to gain a seat in the House through a byelection, or push to get one in a general election?
The thornier question revolves around Pierre Poilievre’s leadership. Losing two MPs (three, if we count Matt Jeneroux) is hard for any leader to bear. Losing more than that could be the end for him. Members at the January convention in Calgary might be more forgiving than his own caucus mates, but even that vote can’t be taken entirely for granted. And if Carney does get his majority through floor-crossers, it could be asking a lot for Conservative MPs to continue to show loyalty to Poilievre through to 2029. The leadership question surrounding the Conservatives might get settled soon enough — but it could also drag on for all of 2026.
Byelections, byelections, byelections!
We love a good byelection at The Writ, and it seems likely we’ll be blessed with several of them in 2026. Liberal MPs Jonathan Wilkinson and Bill Blair are still rumoured to be heading off to diplomatic posts, while Chrystia Freeland has accepted a new post of her own that starts in the summer and will presumably involve her resigning her seat. On the Conservative side of the aisle, there’s Aaron Gunn, who is mulling a run for the B.C. Conservative leadership, and Matt Jeneroux, who has already said he’ll resign in the spring. There could very well be more. With the numbers in the House being so tight, these vacancies and byelections will carry more weight than they usually do, and will also provide us with some clear barometers of where public opinion stands.
Quebec goes to the polls
The only election scheduled for 2026 is in Quebec — and it’ll be an important one. Five parties are in the running to win some seats, but at the moment the only party with a serious chance of winning the most is the Parti Québécois. The PQ promises to hold a referendum on independence within its first mandate, so if the PQ is able to keep its lead in the polls it’ll deeply impact not only the politics of Quebec but the politics of the entire country, starting us off on the path to another difficult debate on national unity. The resignation of Pablo Rodriguez yesterday (more on that below, too) throws a significant amount of uncertainty — and intrigue — into how next year might play out.
Early elections elsewhere?
Alberta might want to get in on the sovereignty debate, too. A petition calling for Alberta to stay within Canada has already gotten the requisite signatures and a campaign to get signatures for a petition calling for Alberta’s secession is getting started. A referendum on it could be held in 2026, and Danielle Smith’s UCP government might not want to stay entirely on the sidelines. Could she take advantage of the sovereignty issue, as well as decent-enough polls, to call an election a year early in Alberta?
What about in Manitoba, where Wab Kinew is riding high, or in British Columbia, where David Eby has suggested he might need to call an election if the legislature (where he has a one-seat majority) becomes unworkable? A year with only one election on the calendar could quickly get filled up.
Provincial party leaderships and their federal implications
Three leadership contests in particular could have some federal repercussions. The Quebec Liberals will need to have an accelerated leadership race ahead of the October election and it’s possible some MPs might try to follow in Rodriguez’s footsteps. The B.C. Conservatives look set to choose their new leader in the first half of 2026 and already one Conservative MP has expressed interest. There could be others. And the Ontario Liberals haven’t yet set a date, but the start of their leadership contest could see some Liberal MPs kick the tires, including 2023’s runner-up, Nate Erskine-Smith.
Leadership contests will also fill vacancies for the PEI and New Brunswick Progressive Conservatives and the Nova Scotia Liberals. These are unlikely to have broader repercussions, but will be important moments in their respective provinces’ politics.
The next year has all the ingredients needed for another fascinating 12 months of Canadian politics, with choices and decisions that will impact our lives and the country for the foreseeable future. The Writ, of course, will be covering it all with enthusiasm. So, stick around and stay tuned!
Programming note: This is the final Weekly Writ of 2025. It’ll return to your inboxes on January 15. In the meantime, keep an eye out for new podcast episodes and the second instalment of the Model Development Diary. I’ll also announce the winner of the 2025 Prediction Contest as well as kick-off the 2026 edition!
Thanks for all of your support throughout 2025. Here’s to another great year! 🎉
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on the floor-crossing of Michael Ma, the resignation of Pablo Rodriguez and the start of a leadership race in Prince Edward Island.
Why cherry-picking polls is not a good idea. Plus, where the federal parties stand today and where Quebec politics stood before Rodriguez’s departure.
#EveryElectionProject: “They promise … generally, to behave themselves” — the 1874 Nova Scotia election.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Liberals approach majority with another floor-crosser
It’s been a week since the bombshell news that the Conservative MP for Markham–Unionville, Michael Ma, was crossing the floor over to the Liberals. After the crossing of Chris d’Entremont and the (pending?) resignation of Matt Jeneroux, following reporting that he was also mulling a move, this makes three MPs that have quit Pierre Poilievre’s caucus since the beginning of November.
Will there be more?