Election Writ 4/15: Ontario is a problem for Pierre Poilievre
The Conservatives trail by too much in Ontario. That'll need to change to give them a chance to win.
If you squint, you can see some indications that the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives is getting a little smaller. But the Liberals retain a good lead nationally and a very comfortable lead in the projected seat count.
Ontario is probably the main reason for that — and it’s the place where Pierre Poilievre needs to turn things around (and quickly) if he’s going to have any chance of winning this election.
Also in today’s newsletter: Could the Liberals make a breakthrough north of Montreal?
Despite the addition of seven new polls to the Poll Tracker in today’s update, the national averages have hardly budged. The Liberals led with 44.1% and the Conservatives trail with 37.9%. The six-point lead the Poll Tracker found yesterday hasn’t moved whatsoever.
It has moved a little more since last week. On April 8, the Poll Tracker put the margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives at seven points. That’s a tightening, but it isn’t a complete shift in the campaign. All it has done is drop the Liberals below the 200-seat mark. They remain well clear of the 172-seat mark needed for a majority government.
The six pollsters newly added to the projection show Liberal leads varying from one point (Mainstreet Research, already reverting after show a two-point Conservative lead yesterday) to eight points (Pollara Strategic Insights and Pallas Data). The Liberals scored either 44% or 45% in all of these polls, with the Conservatives registering between 36% and 39% in all but the Mainstreet survey. The NDP was between 5% and 9%.
If we compare the three daily trackers to their last independent three-day roll, we see the Conservatives up two points according to Nanos and three points according to Mainstreet, with the Liberals and NDP each averaging a one-point drop. It isn’t a consistent trend between the three pollsters, but all three do see the margin between the two parties getting smaller.
The other three pollsters were previously in the field over a week ago and do not show a consistent trend across them. But if we look at when they were in the field as well as when the trackers were in the field at around the same time, we again see a small decrease in the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives by about one point.
So, I think it is fair to say that the race is getting marginally tighter. It isn’t a broad, sweeping trend just yet, but it is something to keep an eye on. It will prove moot, however, if we don’t see the Conservatives closing the gap far more dramatically in Ontario.
Because Ontario does not seem to be moving the same way.