Election Writ 4/2: The Conservatives are stuck where it matters most
Party has made no progress in Ontario, B.C. or Atlantic Canada since the writ drop.
There were only minor shifts in the Poll Tracker this morning as the new polls published over the last 24 hours look much like the polls that were published in the previous 24 hours.
That puts Mark Carney one day closer to winning a majority government. And it means Pierre Poilievre has one day fewer to turn his campaign around.
Or, to put it more accurately, to get it moving. Because the Conservatives seem stuck with already one-fourth of this election campaign in the books.
The trackers this morning show no indication of a developing trend, with Liaison, Nanos and Mainstreet putting the Liberals between 43% and 45%, the Conservatives between 37% and 40% and the NDP between 6% and 9%. The other polls published, from Pallas Data and Léger, again show much the same numbers as we’ve seen from other pollsters.
Accordingly, the seat projection has hardly shifted with the Liberals projected to win 202 seats and the Conservatives on track for 117.
But let’s delve a little deeper into the Conservatives’ polling numbers and how they have hardly budged since the writ drop. Worse for them, where things have improved are in regions where the Conservatives are already dominant. They’ve made no inroads in the key battlegrounds.