Weekly Writ 2/19: Carney's fundraising laps his rivals

And the Greens rebrand.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.

A long weekend, 70 centimetres of snow and an Ontario leaders debate have left me a little short on time this week, so let’s dive right into what’s in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:

• News on just how much money Mark Carney has raised in the Liberal leadership race, plus the Greens try a rebrand, three more MPs opt out of the next election and a byelection is called in Manitoba.

• Another poll shows a tight race between Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and the Liberals, if Carney becomes leader. Plus, some new numbers out of British Columbia and Manitoba.

• A solid majority for David Eby if the election were held today.

• Brian Tobin wins big in the #EveryElectionProject.

IN THE NEWS

Mark Carney has wide lead in leadership fundraising

We finally got our first look at the fundraising data in this Liberal leadership campaign and the numbers look good for Mark Carney. Very good.

Fundraising is one of the most predictive metrics in leadership contests — probably the best that is available. While endorsements and polls of the general population are better than nothing, they pale in comparison to the predictive power of fundraising. Not only can it help identify front runners, fundraising also has a decent track record of predicting a candidate’s share of the vote.

That’s great news for Mark Carney, as the fundraising data gleaned from the first interim reports published by Elections Canada shows Carney is raising more than the rest of the field — combined.