Weekly Writ 6/12: Is Poilievre's polling a problem?

Conservatives are plummeting — or maybe not.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning.

With the last federal election only weeks behind us and the next one probably years ahead, it might be a little premature to agonize over the latest poll numbers.

Nevertheless, some of the polling headlines haven’t been very good for Pierre Poilievre. One suggests that the Conservatives are plummeting. Does that mean it is time to jettison the leader before he takes the party down?

I’ll take a look at what the latest numbers are showing — and why it might not yet be time for the Conservatives to panic. But, first, a quick look at what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:

• It’s time to update the 2025 Prediction Contest and, suffice to say, the 2025 election threw us for a loop. Also, the PEI Greens have a new leader and the Quebec Liberals are about to choose theirs. Will Pablo Rodriguez win or will there be an upset?

• A look at Pierre Poilievre’s polling, plus new numbers on defense spending, government satisfaction in Atlantic Canada, how Jewish Canadians voted in the last election and where things stand in Ontario.

• #EveryElectionProject: The 1952 election that re-aligned B.C. politics.

NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Prediction Contest Update, and it’s ugly

I was afraid to look — and with reason.