Ontario Election Projection

Seat and vote projections for Ontario's provincial election.

The following are The Writ’s final vote and seat projections for the Ontario provincial election being held on February 27, 2025.

The vote projection is a weighted average of all available polling data, while the seat projection employs a proportional swing model, applying current swings in the polls to each riding across the province. A full explanation of the methodology can be found at the bottom of this page or here.