The following are The Writ’s vote and seat projections for the Ontario provincial election being held on February 27, 2025. This page will be updated throughout the campaign.
The vote projection is a weighted average of all available polling data, while the seat projection employs a proportional swing model, applying current swings in the polls to each riding across the province. A full explanation of the methodology can be found at the bottom of this page or here.
The Ontario Election Projection will be updated throughout the campaign, so bookmark this link! The latest numbers will also be dissected in the weekly Election Writ.