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Liberal lead holds at nearly 12 points
Federal Projection Update for March 24, 2026
Mar 24
•
Éric Grenier
15
3
The Writ's Federal Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
Mar 24
•
Éric Grenier
9
2
The Writ's Riding Projections
Federal projections for each riding and region of the country.
Mar 24
•
Éric Grenier
8
2
The Numbers: Have we hit Carney's ceiling and Poilievre's floor?
The polls show some of the strongest numbers for the Liberals that we've seen in years while the Conservatives are slumping.
Mar 19
•
Éric Grenier
and
Philippe J. Fournier
12
3
3
Weekly Writ 3/19: How much do you like (or not) your premier?
Wab Kinew is the only provincial premier with a net positive rating among those with the strongest views.
Mar 19
•
Éric Grenier
14
1
3
Vote and Seat Projections
View all
The Writ's Federal Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
Mar 24
•
Éric Grenier
9
2
The Writ's Riding Projections
Federal projections for each riding and region of the country.
Mar 24
•
Éric Grenier
8
2
Liberal lead holds at nearly 12 points
Federal Projection Update for March 24, 2026
Mar 24
•
Éric Grenier
15
3
Liberals would win 200+ seats if election held today
The Writ's federal vote and seat projections are now live!
Mar 17
•
Éric Grenier
27
9
2
Recent posts
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Liberals would win 200+ seats if election held today
The Writ's federal vote and seat projections are now live!
Mar 17
•
Éric Grenier
27
9
2
Vote and seat projection methodology
Full methodology for The Writ's vote and seat projection model
Mar 17
•
Éric Grenier
6
1
The Numbers: Floor-crossing + Byelections = Carney majority?
With another floor-crosser and three byelections now on the calendar, Mark Carney's Liberals could be weeks away from a majority government.
Mar 12
•
Éric Grenier
and
Philippe J. Fournier
10
3
Weekly Writ 3/12: What a difference a year makes
Floor-crossing, byelections put majority in sight for Mark Carney
Mar 12
•
Éric Grenier
13
8
4
#EveryElectionProject: Alberta
Capsules on Alberta's elections from The Weekly Writ
Mar 12
•
Éric Grenier
4
2
(UPDATED) Avi Lewis maintains fundraising dominance with three weeks to go
NDP leadership race looks like it's Lewis's to lose
Mar 9
•
Éric Grenier
21
6
7
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The Writ
Insights and analysis on Canadian politics and elections.
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