Election Writ 4/16: What's at stake in Quebec
French-language debate could move the dial in many directions.
After a rather staid and stagnant election campaign — especially when it comes to the polls — what could prove to be the two most important days of this contest are now upon us.
Tonight, four leaders (more on that in a bit) will debate in French, starting at 6 PM ET. Tomorrow they will debate in English. What happens during those debates could have one of two impacts on this election. They will either solidify Canadians’ current opinions of the parties and leaders, and so give Mark Carney and the Liberals a majority government, or they will kick-off a final week of volatility in the polls that could lead us to an unpredictable election night.
No pressure.
Also in today’s newsletter: A deep-dive into the numbers in Quebec and a stop in the Laurier–Sainte-Marie riding. Plus, the Greens are out of the debates and we have some new polling numbers out of each province in Atlantic Canada.
Since the first debate tonight is in French, we’ll look at how some of the polling numbers in Quebec suggest that nothing is set in stone in the province. But before we do that, let’s get to today’s polls.
The Poll Tracker is hinting at further tightening in the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives nationally. Of the four national polls published this morning (as of writing, Liaison Strategies is not out), we see a lead of between two and seven points for the Liberals. Mainstreet Research has them ahead by two, Nanos Research has them ahead by seven and both Léger and the Innovative Research Group put the gap at five points.
While none of these surveys show dramatic movement since they were last in the field, the net effect is that the Poll Tracker puts the Liberal lead at 5.8 percentage points, the first time it has dipped below six points in nearly two weeks. (And it’ll likely tighten further, as a new poll to be published later today by Abacus Data suggests further tightening. The results are available to subscribers of David Coletto’s Substack here.)
The seat projections have not moved much, however, as the Liberals continue to lead by substantial margins in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are projected to win 197 seats, with the Conservatives winning 120. The Bloc Québécois has improved its standing in Quebec slightly and is now projected to win 20 seats. The party had slipped to 16 seats in the projection a few days ago.
The New Democrats remain at five seats (with a range of three to 14) while the Greens are projected to be in contention to win both, or neither, of the two seats they held at dissolution.
Before getting to Quebec, a few datapoints from the Léger poll are worth delving into:
Léger finds that, by a margin of 46% to 28%, Mark Carney is favoured over Pierre Poilievre as the person best able to handle the U.S. relationship. When Léger subsequently asked those who chose Carney over Poilievre why they thought that way and allowed them to choose up to two options, 45% said it was because of his experience as the governor of the banks of Canada and England, and 42% said it was because of his “calm and stable” demeanour. Carney’s edge really is about his resume and his vibes.
The Conservative and Liberal vote is solidifying, with just 23% and 29% of their supporters saying their choice isn’t final. By contrast, 57% of NDP voters say they could still change their mind. If they do, Carney could gain even more support as the Liberals are the second choice of 50% of NDP voters. A Carney stumble in the debate could boost the NDP, as 45% of Liberal voters have the New Democrats as their second choice.
Only 16% of Liberals choose the Conservatives as their second choice and just 21% of Conservative voters choose the Liberals as theirs. Considering the solidity of the Liberal and Conservative vote and the fact that few of their supporters have the other as their second choice, there is not a huge potential for either party to lose their voters to the other as a result of the debate. Nevertheless, a few points could still make a big difference.
The potential for movement between the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc Québécois out of the debate is far higher, however, because there is less polarization in the province separating these parties.