Election Writ 4/5: The state of the race after two weeks
The Liberals have made gains across the country, including in key battleground provinces.
After two weeks of going flat-out, I need a break! The Election Writ will be back on Monday.
Let’s take stock of where things stand at the end of the second week of this election campaign.
In the Poll Tracker, the Liberals now lead with 44.2% support, followed by the Conservatives at 37.3%. Since the beginning of the election, the Liberals have gained 6.7 points nationwide. The Conservatives are up only 0.2 points. The Liberals have widened their lead by 6.5 percentage points since March 23, when Mark Carney paid a visit to the governor general to request dissolution.
The New Democrats stand at 8.1% support, down 3.5 points since the writ drop. The Bloc Québécois’s support in Quebec equates to 5.3% nationally, down 1.1 point since March 23, while the Greens and People’s Party sit at 2.2% and 2%, respectively. The Greens have slid 1.6 points since the campaign kick-off, while the PPC is down 0.2 points.
The Liberals are projected to win 203 seats, with a likely range of between 184 and 219 seats. That puts them comfortably over the majority threshold of 172 seats and, accordingly, the model gives the Liberals a 96% chance of winning a majority government if an election were held today. The Conservatives sit at 118 seats and a range of between 106 and 131 seats.
The Bloc Québécois is barely holding on to official party status with a projected haul of 17 seats and a range of between 14 and 21. The New Democrats are below the 12-seat threshold for official party status with a projected four seats and a range that runs from zero to nine.
The Greens are considered to have a shot in both of the seats where they have incumbents.
Now, let’s take a look at how things have shifted regionally for each party, starting with the Liberals.