Election Writ 4/11: Where have the polls moved in the last week?
The polls have been stable, but they've shifted a little in two regions.
As if to hammer the point home from yesterday that there isn’t any disagreement in the polls, the three trackers this morning all converged around very similar results.
The new numbers from Nanos Research, Liaison Strategies and Mainstreet Research (the three pollsters putting out daily, rolling three-day surveys) show the Liberals with between 44% and 45% support, the Conservatives between 38% and 40% and the NDP with between 6% and 9%.
Also in today’s newsletter: The Writ’s Campaign Bus heads to the Niagara Peninsula, where two seats could flip to the Liberals.
Compared to the polls each of these firms conducted three days ago (representing samples independent from today’s releases), we see an average shift of zero points for the Liberals, zero points for the Conservatives and zero points for the New Democrats.
The Poll Tracker is accordingly showing very little movement, putting the Liberals at 43.9%, the Conservatives at 37.5% and the NDP at 8.5%. The best-guess seat projection is hardly changed at 199 Liberals, 119 Conservatives, 19 Bloc, five NDP and one Green.
Again, steady as she goes.
But beneath the surface we have seen some movement in the last week — not huge movement, but trends that could be worth keeping an eye on. That movement has shifted the projected outcome in a number of ridings as well.