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The Numbers: The polls have gone crazy
The Numbers Podcast

The Numbers: The polls have gone crazy

The polls have gone from a 25-point Conservative lead to a national tie.

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Éric Grenier
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Philippe J. Fournier
Feb 26, 2025
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It’s been a whirlwind few weeks in the polls as the Liberals have closed the gap on the Conservatives. At first, the Liberals were merely on track for a smaller defeat than before. But now the polls are pointing to the possibility that the prime minister after the next election might not be Pierre Poilievre. It could be Mark Carney.

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the wild federal polls that have been published over the last few days. We also discuss the Liberal leadership race, the resignations of two Atlantic premiers and give our final assessment of the Ontario election campaign. Doug Ford’s PCs are heading to a majority victory, but what is going to happen to Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and Marit Stiles’s NDP?

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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By Éric Grenier · Thousands of paid subscribers
Insights and analysis on Canadian politics and elections.
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Barring a polling upset, Mark Carney's Liberals will win
Some doubt remains about a majority victory, but the data suggests the Conservatives have come up short in key battlegrounds.
Apr 28 • 
Éric Grenier
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Barring a polling upset, Mark Carney's Liberals will win
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Election Writ 4/10: Believe the polls
Every poll now has the Conservatives behind.
Apr 10 • 
Éric Grenier
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Election Writ 4/10: Believe the polls
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Election Writ 4/26: Awaiting the final numbers
What we've seen so far doesn't suggest a late shift in support.
Apr 26 • 
Éric Grenier
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Election Writ 4/26: Awaiting the final numbers
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