Conservatives come out ahead on new electoral map but don't need the help

The Conservatives are the main beneficiaries of the new electoral map but the swing in the polls will matter more

Let’s be clear. The new electoral map is probably not going to decide the next election. The polls have shifted so dramatically since the last campaign that a few new ridings here, a couple tweaked boundaries there are not going to make all the difference.

At least, if the polling trends hold through to 2025.

If they don’t, then the map could play a larger role in the outcome. That would be good news for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, because they are the main beneficiary of the redrawn battleground that parties will be fighting over.

This is the last analysis in my series on the federal riding redistribution, summarizing what has been a cross-country tour of the new electoral map. Here’s the list of past entries in this series:

• FEDERAL RIDING REDISTRIBUTION SERIES

  • British Columbia

    • B.C. update

  • Alberta

    • Alberta update

  • Toronto and Peel Region

  • Rest of Golden Horseshoe

  • Northern, Southwestern and Eastern Ontario

  • Greater Montreal

  • Quebec City and Regions

    • Quebec update

  • Saskatchewan

    • Saskatchewan update

    • Regina update

  • Manitoba

  • Atlantic Canada

    • Nova Scotia update

    • New Brunswick, P.E.I. and N.L. update

Every decade, Canada’s federal riding map is redrawn to take into account the country’s growing and moving population. It’s a non-partisan process, but the outcome of the process has often resulted in one or more parties gaining a partisan advantage. This is unavoidable, especially if a party is popular in fast-growing regions.

That’s the case for the Conservatives. Most of the new seats being added to the map are in places where the party already holds sway, adding a few more safe seats to their already sizable tally of safe seats. Other new (or relocated) seats are coming in areas that tend to swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives. While the Liberals would have won these new seats had they existed in 2021, the shifts we’ve seen in voting intentions suggest that these ridings are now good targets for the Conservatives.

It’s a double-whammy against Justin Trudeau’s Liberals — new seats primarily being added where the Liberals have no chance of winning or where they have seen their support drop significantly. Of course, trailing by some 15 percentage points in the polls, the new electoral map is not the Liberals’ biggest problem heading into the next campaign. But it’s yet another knock against a beleaguered incumbent government.

Now, one last time, let’s dive into the new electoral map.