Final proposed federal maps for Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador

Who stands to win and lose

The initially proposed new boundaries in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador could have flipped a couple seats. Now that the commissioners have digested public feedback, it looks like the incumbent in only seat will emerge as the underdog for re-election.

This is the fourth analysis in my series on the federal riding redistribution — and the second that has me returning to take another look at a commission’s proposals of what the electoral map should be next time.

• EARLIER INSTALMENTS IN THE SERIES

  • Atlantic Canada (Preliminary) / Nova Scotia (Final)

  • Saskatchewan (Preliminary)

Every decade, independent commissions re-draw Canada’s electoral map to reflect the growing population of the country. The proposals for each province have been tabled, the public hearings have concluded and the final proposals are in the course of being published. I’ve been keeping an eye on both the proposed and finalized reports.

The final reports will go through one last step of scrutiny, allowing MPs to make their objections. After taking those objections into account, the commissioners will submit their final maps that will be in place for the next election, as long as it occurs after April 2024.

Changing riding boundaries can have a real impact on electoral outcomes. In this series, I’m diving deep into the re-drawn map to see what those impacts might be (with the help of J.P. Kirby’s excellent Riding Builder tool). Paying subscribers of The Writ will take that deep dive along with me, but before plunging in here’s the TL;DR of what you need to know:

Saskatchewan Redistribution Briefing: The province’s urban battlegrounds are little changed, though one riding in Regina could be an easier target for the NDP next time. The most significant change, though, is in the north, where the new boundaries will make it very difficult for the Conservatives to sweep Saskatchewan again — opening the way to either the Liberals or the New Democrats.

Newfoundland and Labrador Redistribution Briefing: The only major changes made to the map have been on the Avalon Peninsula, but the electoral impact is minimal. Nevertheless, the new boundaries will play a role in how likely it is that two marginal seats on that peninsula could change hands in the future.

Now let’s find out which seats we’re talking about before I update the scorecard on the 2022 federal redistribution, as well as check in on the other final proposals that have come forward recently in other provinces.