Bloc gains at Liberal expense in boundary changes to Quebec's regions
Outside of Greater Montreal, a few races get tighter and one seat flips
Quebec’s number of ridings is sticking to 78, but there are still some big changes coming to the map — in particular, the disappearance of one riding in eastern Quebec and the creation of an extra riding north of Montreal.
That adds one more seat to the Bloc Québécois’s column at the expense of the Liberals. That’s the biggest change in Quebec City and the regions. Other changes suggest this map is better for the Bloc and the Conservatives and worse for the Liberals and the NDP.
This is the sixth analysis in my series on the federal riding redistribution and is focusing on 39 Quebec ridings outside of the Greater Montreal area. So far, we’ve taken a look at the preliminary and final proposals throughout Atlantic Canada, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
EARLIER INSTALMENTS IN THE SERIES
Every decade, independent commissions re-draw Canada’s electoral map to reflect the growing population of the country. The final proposals for each province have been tabled and the public hearings have concluded.
The final reports will go through one last step of scrutiny, allowing MPs to make their objections. After taking those objections into account, the commissioners will submit their final maps that will be in place for the next election, as long as that election occurs after April 2024.
Changing riding boundaries can have a real impact on electoral outcomes. In this series, I’m diving deep into the re-drawn map to see what those impacts might be (with the help of J.P. Kirby’s excellent Riding Builder tool). Paying subscribers of The Writ are taking that deep dive along with me, but before plunging in here’s the TL;DR of what you need to know:
Quebec City and the Regions Redistribution Briefing: The Bloc comes out ahead with a net seat gain after the transfer of one riding from eastern Quebec to the Laurentians, costing the Liberals one of their few rural, francophone ridings in the province. Where the map has improved for the Liberals, it has improved only a little, while the Conservatives look better positioned to make gains in Quebec City. For the New Democrats, their hopes of winning a second seat in Quebec look diminished.
Now let’s get into the details of the changes that have been made before I update the scorecard on the 2022-2023 federal redistribution