Final Nova Scotia map reverses Liberal gain
Commissioners' change of mind flips a seat back to the Conservatives
Nova Scotians like their history and hate change.
Those are the conclusions of the province’s federal electoral boundaries commissioners, who have reversed some of the biggest boundary changes they proposed.
And that reversal might have cost the Liberals a seat.
This third analysis in my series on the federal riding redistribution brings us back to Nova Scotia. When I looked at the commission’s initial proposals, the proposed changes to the current electoral map were enough to flip the riding of South Shore–St. Margaret’s from the Conservatives to the Liberals, while making the riding of Halifax a tougher one for the Liberals to hold against the NDP. On the final map, only one of those things is still true.
Every decade, independent commissions re-draw Canada’s electoral map to reflect the growing population of the country. The proposals for each province have been tabled, the public hearings have concluded and the final proposals will be published over the coming weeks. I’m keeping an eye on both the proposed and finalized reports. Nova Scotia is the first to get to this stage.
Changing riding boundaries can have real impacts on electoral outcomes. In this series, I’m diving deep into the re-drawn map to see what those impacts might be (with the help of J.P. Kirby’s excellent Riding Builder tool). Paying subscribers of The Writ will take that deep dive along with me, but before plunging in here’s the TL;DR of what you need to know:
Nova Scotia Redistribution Briefing: The final report reverses what would have been a flipped seat for the Liberals and instead creates three battleground ridings the Liberals will have a tougher time in, with only one marginal riding becoming safer for the Liberals.
Overall, this map puts the Liberals at a disadvantage, with both the Conservatives and New Democrats in a better position in Nova Scotia heading into the next federal election.
Now let’s find out which seats we’re talking about before I update the scorecard on the 2022 federal redistribution.