Liberals lose out in new map for Ontario's regions
Liberals lose out in new map for Ontario's regions
Conservatives flip a seat and NDP loses one as many ridings change.
The changes coming to the electoral map in the three corners of Ontario — the southwest, the north and the east — will have a big impact on the next federal election. But while it is a bit of a mixed bag for all three major parties, the Liberals come out furthest behind.
That’s particularly the case in southwestern and northern Ontario, though the map improves for the Liberals in the eastern bits of the province. For both the NDP and the Conservatives, the southwest opens up some new opportunities — while seats are won and lost on the new map in the north.
This is the latest analysis in my series on the federal riding redistribution. Here’s how far we’ve come to date:
FEDERAL RIDING REDISTRIBUTION SERIES
Every decade, independent commissions re-draw Canada’s electoral map to reflect the growing population of the country. The process has now completed and the last remaining steps are for parliament to adopt the new maps and for Elections Canada to get everything in place to use that map when the next election is called. Because of the extra work that is required, the new map will only be used if the election occurs after April 2024. If it happens before that date, the next election will be fought over the map as it currently exists.
Changing riding boundaries can have a real impact on electoral outcomes. In this series, I’m diving deep into the re-drawn map to see what those impacts might be (with the help of J.P. Kirby’s excellent Riding Builder tool). Paying subscribers of The Writ are taking that deep dive along with me, but before plunging in here’s the TL;DR of what you need to know:
Northern, Eastern and Southwestern Ontario Briefing: The Liberals face more challenges in northern Ontario, where they lose one seat to the Conservatives and will have a much harder time holding another against both the Conservatives and the NDP. The NDP also loses a seat in the north due to the re-allocation of one riding to the south. In eastern Ontario, the Liberals largely come out ahead, particularly in one battleground in the Ottawa area. And in southwestern Ontario, the changes are largely bad for the Liberals to the benefit of both the NDP and Conservatives, as Liberal seats in London become tougher to hold and a closer three-way race emerges in Windsor.
The final look at the boundaries redistribution, before doing a national overview, will be on the grand-daddy of the election-deciding regions of the country: the Greater Toronto Area (and the Niagara Peninsula).