Conservatives, Liberals come out ahead on new B.C. map
Federal riding redistribution significantly changes the electoral map in British Columbia
The federal election map in British Columbia is about to get a major facelift as big changes come to the Lower Mainland and the Southern Interior. When it comes to the next time British Columbians vote, the changes appear to make the Conservatives the biggest beneficiaries, with some extra advantages for the Liberals, too.
But, on the whole, the map looks like a loser for the NDP.
This is the ninth analysis in my series on the federal riding redistribution. So far, we’ve taken a look at the changes throughout Atlantic Canada, the Prairies and Quebec. Now it’s time to take a look at the new boundaries for British Columbia.
EARLIER INSTALMENTS IN THE SERIES
Every decade, independent commissions re-draw Canada’s electoral map to reflect the growing population of the country. The final proposals for each province have been tabled and the public hearings and opportunities for MPs to raise their objections have concluded. A few commissions are still in the process of considering those final MP objections, while other commissions have completed their work and the new boundaries are moving on to the representation order that will officially establish the new electoral map. That map will be used in any election that occurs after April 2024.
Changing riding boundaries can have a real impact on electoral outcomes. In this series, I’m diving deep into the re-drawn map to see what those impacts might be (with the help of J.P. Kirby’s excellent Riding Builder tool). Paying subscribers of The Writ are taking that deep dive along with me, but before plunging in here’s the TL;DR of what you need to know:
British Columbia Redistribution Briefing: Lots of changes will affect the margins in some battlegrounds, but the biggest impact comes from the addition of a riding in the Conservative-friendly Southern Interior, some NDP marginals that will be far tighter and a suddenly-safe seat for the Liberals in Vancouver. All in all, the new map is very good for the Conservatives, moderately good for the Liberals, and bad for the NDP.
The commissioners are still mulling the objections raised by B.C. MPs, so we might have to return to the map if some final adjustments are made. But until then, let’s get into the final proposals for British Columbia’s federal electoral map.