The Writ Drop is your weekly round-up of everything you might have missed in political and election news, federal, provincial and municipal polling.
Good morning everyone! Welcome to this first edition of the new Writ Drop newsletter. Here’s what you might have missed from me over the last week:
THE WRIT
I took a first run at the newly-called B.C. election and whether it might prove to be a risky gamble for David Eby. You can read it here.
Updated the Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker with new data from Janet Brown Opinion Research (for CBC Calgary) and from Ipsos (for Global News). Support for remaining in Canada now sits at 70%, with 22% wanting to start the process of holding a binding referendum on independence.
Updated the Federal Vote and Seat Projections with new national polls from Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies, as well as a B.C.-only poll from Liaison. Not much change from the previous update, though the Liberals are now projected to be leading in 228 seats to just 77 for the Conservatives.
Updated the Quebec Election Tracker with new polls from Léger, Pallas Data and Segma Recherche. The Parti Québécois is holding its lead and is projected to have an 85% chance of winning the most seats. Prior to the publication of the Léger poll, I also wrote an analysis of the projection update earlier this week.
THE NUMBERS & LES CHIFFRES
The Numbers: Was it a good idea for David Eby to call an election in BC? - This week on The Numbers, we break down Eby’s decision to call an early election and how that could play out in the coming weeks. We also discuss some of the latest federal polls that have nothing but good news for Prime Minister Mark Carney and a stunning poll out of Manitoba that has the NDP’s Wab Kinew at record-breaking levels of support. Finally, we take a look at the Quebec election campaign that is entering the final stages. WATCH OR LISTEN HERE
Les chiffres : PQ majoritaire, vraiment ? - Le Parti québécois demeure sous la barre des 30%, mais se rapproche néanmoins d’une majorité de sièges dans les projections de sièges. La division du vote profite-t-elle au PQ à ce point ? L’effet Christine Fréchette est-il en train réellement de s’essouffler ? Jusqu’où la CAQ pourrait-elle glisser ? Et le Parti conservateur peut-il profiter de sa force dans la région de Québec pour bloquer le chemin à Paul St-Pierre Plamondon ? À moins de deux semaines du scrutin, nous faisons le point sur une course toujours aussi fragmentée — et potentiellement pleine de surprises. ÉCOUTEZ ICI
ELSEWHERE
I was on CBC Radio Noon in Quebec for some post-debate analysis.
I joined Jason D’Souza on All Points West to discuss the challenge of polling in the British Columbia election.
Now let’s take a look at some of the latest developments and new polls that I didn’t get a chance to get to this past week.