It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for him.
The speculation had been building for days that B.C. Premier David Eby would call a snap election, only two years after winning a narrow majority government in 2024 (and two years ahead of the next scheduled election in 2028). With the B.C. Conservatives in an absolute shambles, it seemed like an opportune moment — if people were upset about the early call, they’d still have to choose the collapsing Conservatives and their unpopular leader over Eby’s NDP. Faced with that choice, the thinking went, they’d have no real choice but to stick with the New Democrats.
But then things changed.
This election call caught me by surprise. I began working on a B.C. projection model late last week and agonized over how to model CentreBC’s support. That might not prove to be as big of an obstacle as I originally thought (more on that below), but it will still take me a few more days to get a model up and running. Keep an eye out for The Writ’s BC Election Tracker, coming soon!
Kerry-Lynne Findlay, who won the deeply-divisive B.C. Conservative leadership race earlier this year by a thin margin, was presiding over a slow-motion car crash. MLAs were quitting the Conservatives over her leadership. Some of them were organizing to remove her. The drama reached a fever pitch when Findlay expelled her two immediate predecessors from caucus — John Rustad and Trevor Halford, who served as interim leader after Rustad’s own ouster.
The party was looking like a joke. A group of the newly-independent MLAs, including leadership contestant Peter Milobar, pledged to form a new party and then joined (and, briefly, took over) the pre-existing CentreBC party. There seemed to be some momentum building for CentreBC and the prospect of a divided right — between the disorganized CentreBC and the disintegrating Conservatives — virtually ensured a re-elected NDP majority if an election could be called.
But with the speculation of a snap call becoming louder and louder, the right side of the political spectrum began to get its act together. Findlay finally recognized her position as untenable, and resigned her leadership. Milobar, who took over from former B.C. Liberal MLA Mike Bernier as leader of CentreBC, returned to the fold and promised to take CentreBC with him. Most of the Conservatives-turned-CentreBCers followed, and the Conservatives chose two-term MLA Lorne Doerkson as interim leader.
While CentreBC is pledging to fight this next election, now with MLA Elenore Sturko as leader, the split on the right appears to have been mostly mended. And the unpopular Findlay has been replaced by a largely-unknown but certainly less-polarizing Doerkson.
And yet Eby decided to forge ahead with his election call.
It’s clear enough why Eby would’ve liked his chances against Findlay. Polling by Ipsos and the Angus Reid Institute found that her favourability rating was an average of just 19.5%. Her unfavourability averaged 49.5%, a very high number for a new leader. By comparison, Eby’s favourability or approval rating was 41% — not terrific but certainly good enough in a 2.5-party race, especially against such an unpopular opponent.
But Findlay is gone now. The divide on the right looks far less electorally advantageous. And the race is starting out with only a small NDP edge.
The poll by Ipsos put the NDP ahead by 10 points. That lead effectively kicked off the election chatter. The Angus Reid Institute poll put the gap at just four points, however. But this was still in the context of an Eby vs. Findlay fight, a contest that Eby should’ve had confidence to win in the long run.
Liaision Strategies, in a newer poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday, shows a five point lead, suggesting that the initial reaction to the snap call might not have yet had any impact on NDP support. But a five-point lead to kick-off a five-week campaign is not much.
Liaison finds the New Democrats leading with 41% support. The Conservatives trail with 36%, followed by the Greens at 12%. CentreBC and OneBC (a further-right party led by formerly-Conservative MLA Dallas Brodie) had 4% apiece.
Regionally, the poll bodes well for the NDP. The party was leading by nine points in and around Vancouver and by 13 points on Vancouver Island. The Conservatives were ahead by eight points in the rest of British Columbia. As is usually the case, the outcome will boil down to who comes out ahead in the B.C. Lower Mainland. For now, that’s the NDP.
But will it remain the NDP? The ARI poll found that 50% of British Columbians believed it was time for a change of government, with only 34% saying it is not time for a change. The Liaison survey shows Doerkson with a 21% favourable, 29% unfavourable rating. While not stellar, it is not a problem just yet. (His status as an interim leader, though, could become a problem. People might not want to vote for a premier who is TBD.)
The early election call itself is the biggest source of risk for Eby. He pitched the call as a necessity in the face of Donald Trump. Voters might not buy that — they are smart enough to sense a cynical partisan ploy when one looks as obvious as this one. The call has been roundly criticized in British Columbia, particularly by those candidates currently vying for municipal office. The municipal election is taking place on October 17, the week before the provincial vote is now scheduled to be held. It’s unusual to hold overlapping provincial and municipal elections. Indeed, the fixed-election law in B.C. strives to prevent that from happening.
In the end, though, it will still come down to a choice. Will British Columbians who might’ve voted for the NDP but who are upset with Eby’s early-election call switch to another party (or stay home), or will they still consider him the better option when forced to make a choice?
Majority governments very rarely call an early election only two years into their mandates. Three years is fairly common and still a risk. Eby is pushing the limits with this call. How will British Columbians respond?