There are only two weeks to go before Quebec’s provincial election comes to an end, and the Parti Québécois remains the favourite to win it — primarily because no other party has been able to separate itself from the pack.
Two new polls were published today, one from Segma Recherche (for Radio-Canada) and one from Pallas Data. They didn’t show much movement in the toplines (and Segma is reporting for the first time, so we have no trend to follow), but that only emphasizes that the PQ’s position, despite its stagnation below the 30% mark, has remained secure enough.
B.C.’s POLITICAL WILD WEST - It’s been a crazy few days in B.C. politics, as more MLAs were expelled from Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s B.C. Conservative Party. The upheaval culminated in the expulsion of three caucus members on Friday, including two of Findlay’s immediate predecessors as leader (John Rustad and Trevor Halford). Then, on Sunday, Findlay announced she was resigning as leader of the party effective immediately, but will stay on as the Conservative candidate in the upcoming byelection in Abbotsford-Mission. Meanwhile, speculation has been rife that Premier David Eby could call a snap election, two years ahead of schedule. But wait, there’s more! Peter Milobar, leader of the pack of former B.C. Conservatives who joined together to form a new party, entered into an agreement with CentreBC and will take over as leader from former MLA Mike Bernier.
What this all means for British Columbia politics in the coming hours, days and weeks is still very much up in the air. Will Eby still call an early election? Will the Conservatives install a new leader if a campaign is called, kick-off a new leadership race or stick with newly-named interim Lorne Doerkson? What will happen with CentreBC and its new MLAs now that Findlay is gone?
I started working on a new projection model for British Columbia on Friday, but the weekend’s events have left me with a bit of a puzzle, since it isn’t entirely clear what the slate of parties will be for the campaign. I’ll be back with more analysis of B.C. politics when the fog clears a little and we have some new polling numbers. In the meantime, let’s get back to the provincial campaign that is actually happening.
With the update to the Quebec Election Tracker, the PQ is largely unchanged at 28.6% in the vote projection, followed by the CAQ at 21.5% and the Liberals at 21%. There hasn’t been much change in those numbers over the last few weeks, with the exception of a slow decline for the CAQ, which has been sliding from its high of 23.5% on the first day of the campaign with virtually every update.