Updated August 25, 2026
With days to go before the official start of the campaign in Quebec, the Parti Québécois holds a good lead in the polls and is favoured in the seat projection by a wide margin, enough to make a majority government a possibility. But the PQ is leading in the projection in a lot of close races, many of which are unlikely to fall their way. Their projected seat haul is close to or at their likely ceiling, meaning they are more likely to under-shoot the projection than match or beat it.
The Quebec Liberals are well-positioned to retain the official opposition role but are not strong enough among francophone voters to challenge for government. A high level of uncertainty in the projection gives the Coalition Avenir Québec an outside shot, particularly if they out-perform their polls and win lots of close races, but they could also find themselves reduced to a seat count in the single-digits.
The Conservatives look poised to enter the National Assembly, while Québec Solidaire is likely to lose seats.
Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them.
Full regional breakdowns and tracking charts are available for subscribers below, as are complete riding-level projections. A full methodological explanation of how the vote and seat projection model works can be found here.
The Vote Projection is based primarily on a weighted average of all publicly-available provincial and regional polls. The weighted average is then used to project the outcome in all 127 ridings across Quebec, taking into account local candidates. Those individual riding-level projections are then weighted by the number of eligible voters in each riding and past turnout to determine the provincial vote projection for each party.
The Seat Leading shows the number of seats in which each party is projected to be ahead. Parties are assigned a range of likely vote share in each riding based on past polling and modelling errors and 10,000 simulations are run to assign to each party a number of ridings in which they are in contention. The High and Low ranges take into account 95% of all likely outcomes, while the Avg. Projection shows the average number of seats each party wins in these simulations, which takes into account the tendency for parties to under- or out-perform their polls, as well as the number of toss-up contests across the province.
Wondering how to interpret the Seats Leading and the Avg. Projection? While the Seat Projection is The Writ’s “official call”, the Avg. Projection is an important guide to understanding the projections, in conjunction with the high and low ranges. Seat projections are rarely right on target, so the Avg. Projection should set expectations. In other words, if a party is leading in 25 seats but the Avg. Projection is 21.2, your expectation should be that the party will win around 25 seats, with a greater likelihood that the party under-performs that target rather than beats it.
The percentage of simulations in which each party wins a majority or a plurality of seats is shown below.
Complete riding and sub-regional projections are available for subscribers of The Writ:
A full breakdown of the methodology behind the vote and seat projection model can be found here:
The table below includes all recent provincial voting intentions polls that are publicly available. You can click or tap on the name of the polling firm in the left-most column to go directly to that polling firm’s original poll release.
Vote and seat projections broken down by region, as well as tracking charts, are available for subscribers of The Writ below 👇