The Writ's Federal Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them.
Updated March 17, 2026
The Liberals would very likely win a big majority government if an election were held today, with gains coming primarily from the Conservatives. Mark Carney’s Liberals hold a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, while the Bloc and NDP have about as much support as they did in the 2025 federal election.
Full regional breakdowns and tracking charts are available for subscribers below, as are complete riding-level projections. A full methodological explanation of how the vote and seat projection model works can be found here.
The Vote Projection is based primarily on a weighted average of all publicly-available national and regional polls. Complete listings of published polls can be found at 338Canada or on the Wikipedia page for polling in the next federal election. The weighted average is then used to project the outcome in all 343 ridings across the country, taking into account local candidates. Those individual riding-level projections are then weighted by the number of eligible voters in each riding and past turnout to determine the national vote projection for each party.
The Seat Projection shows the number of seats in which each party is projected to be ahead. Parties are assigned a range of likely vote share in each riding based on past polling and modelling errors and 10,000 simulations are run to assign to each party a number of ridings in which they are in contention. The High and Low ranges take into account 95% of all likely outcomes, while the Avg. Projection shows the average number of seats each party wins in these simulations.
Wondering how to interpret the Seat Projection and the Avg. Projection? While the Seat Projection is The Writ’s “official call”, the Avg. Projection is an important guide to understanding the projections, in conjunction with the high and low ranges. Seat projections are rarely right on target, so the Avg. Projection should set expectations. In other words, if the Seat Projection for a party is 25 seats but the Avg. Projection is 21.2, your expectation should be that the party will win around 25 seats, with a greater likelihood that the party under-performs that target rather than beats it.
The percentage of simulations in which each party wins a majority or a plurality of seats is shown below.
Complete riding and sub-regional projections are available for subscribers of The Writ:
A full breakdown of the methodology behind the vote and seat projection model can be found here:
Vote and seat projections broken down by region and tracking charts going back to the 2025 election are available for subscribers of The Writ below 👇