The Writ Drop is your weekly round-up of everything you might have missed in political and election news, federal, provincial and municipal polling.
Good morning everyone! It’s the last weekend before Quebec’s election, so keep an eye out for new polls that will be published between now and Sunday evening. Look on Monday morning for my last update to the Quebec Election Tracker. I’ll also have a final analysis to set you up for when the counting starts!
Here’s what you might have missed from me over the last week:
THE WRIT
The Quebec Election Tracker was updated early in the week with the polls from Synopsis Recherche, Léger and Pallas Data that really kicked off what was a rough week for the CAQ. I wrote a deeper analysis of those numbers on Monday. You can read that analysis here. With those (somewhat dated) numbers, the odds the PQ wins the most seats sits at 93%.
The Federal Vote and Seat Projections were also updated with new numbers from Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies and Nanos Research. Two numbers in particular from that Nanos poll really captured people’s attention: 50% for the Liberals and 62% for Mark Carney on the best prime minister question.
Finally, the B.C. Election Tracker was also updated with new polls from Léger, Liaison Strategies, Innovative Research Group and Ipsos. The model currently gives the B.C. Conservatives a 54% chance of winning the most seats. Not exactly what David Eby had in mind.
THE NUMBERS & LES CHIFFRES
The Numbers: Carney hits new highs, Conservatives risk new lows - Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to be walking on water in the polls, as new numbers put the Liberals and their leader at highs not seen before in recent history. Meanwhile, support for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives drops to new lows as an upcoming resignation means the party will face another tough byelection in the coming months. This week on The Numbers, we discuss the federal polling landscape and the upcoming byelection in Parry Sound—Muskoka. We then take a look at where the polls are heading in the ongoing Quebec and British Columbia provincial elections, before chatting about new developments in Alberta and Manitoba. We then answer questions from our members WATCH OR LISTEN HERE
Les chiffres : Que restera-t-il de la CAQ ? - À une semaine du vote, trois nouvelles enquêtes placent le parti de Christine Fréchette sous la barre des 20 %, au point où sa présence même à l’Assemblée nationale après l'élection pourrait être menacée. Pendant ce temps, le Parti québécois conserve son avance et se rapproche du seuil d’un gouvernement majoritaire, tandis que les conservateurs poursuivent leur progression. Que s’est-il passé avec la CAQ? Jusqu’où peut-elle tomber? Et le PQ peut-il réellement décrocher une majorité avec moins du tiers des suffrages ? Puis, nous terminons en répondant aux questions des membres du balado. ÉCOUTEZ ICI
ELSEWHERE
Along with Abacus Data’s David Coletto, I joined Power & Politics on CBC News Network earlier this week to discuss the latest federal poll numbers. WATCH HERE
Earlier this week, I recorded an interview with CBC Radio’s The House about the Quebec election. I’m not sure what will be used from that interview, but tune in this morning to find out!
Now let’s take a look at some of the latest developments and new polls that I didn’t get a chance to get to this past week.