Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to be walking on water in the polls, as new numbers put the Liberals and their leader at highs not seen before in recent history. Meanwhile, support for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives drops to new lows as an upcoming resignation means the party will face another tough byelection in the coming months.
This week on The Numbers, we discuss the federal polling landscape and the upcoming byelection in Parry Sound—Muskoka. We then take a look at where the polls are heading in the ongoing Quebec and British Columbia provincial elections, before chatting about new developments in Alberta and Manitoba. We then answer questions from our members, with an extended edition of the mailbag available on Patreon or via an Apple subscription.
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My elderly mother lived in Parry-Sound Muskoka and was there in 2006 when Tony Clement first won for the Conservatives, by less than 30 votes (after a fair Liberal run). Mom has repeatedly characterized the vote in that region as Liberal and not-Liberal, and not especially ideological, so I think a particularly strong Green (and/or NDP) candidate might paradoxically help the Liberals. Or maybe times have changed a lot in 20 years.