If the Abacus poll is accurate and the Liberals do end up about 10 points ahead of the CPC, how much larger would the Liberal seat pick up be? I’d imagine that kind of lead would exceed the possible 178…
Well, let's keep it simple. The Conservatives beat the Liberals by one point in 2019 and this poll suggests the Liberals are ahead by 10, which means an 11-point swing. There were 20 ridings in which the Conservatives won and the Liberals were behind by 11 points or less. So, right there that bumps the Liberals up to 177 seats.
Between the Liberals and NDP, there has been just a two-point national swing. That's not enough to win the Liberals any seats, as the closest LIB-NDP contest won by the NDP was Windsor West, which was NDP +3.7. And in Quebec, the Abacus poll represents a swing of over 4 points from the Liberals to the Bloc, which could actually cost the Liberals a couple seats.
Now, this is very simplistic since I am just using national swing rather than regional swing, but you get the idea. A 10-point lead over the Conservatives wins the Liberals a lot of seats at the Conservatives' expense, but they aren't doing much better relative to the NDP or Bloc than they were in 2019, so the upside is limited.
In the BC provincial election lots of people were shocked at how much of the Fraser Valley (conservative heartland) went NDP. The pundits argued this was because of massive growth of millennial suburban voters in the area. Im curious if the big demographic shift in regions like this (basically farmland to suburb in less then 5 yrs) will impact the National election. Likewise this Spring we were bombarded with “great rural migration” stories in every outlet about Millennial city folk moving to small towns/new provinces with the shift to remote work. I’m really interested to see an analysis of how this might disrupt the politics of traditionally “safe” seats
Any chance you could do an update for the Green party? I am wondering if Kitchener Center makes the list.
I will take a look at the Green targets, but there were no seats in which the Greens finished within six points of the winner.
Thank you.
If the Abacus poll is accurate and the Liberals do end up about 10 points ahead of the CPC, how much larger would the Liberal seat pick up be? I’d imagine that kind of lead would exceed the possible 178…
Well, let's keep it simple. The Conservatives beat the Liberals by one point in 2019 and this poll suggests the Liberals are ahead by 10, which means an 11-point swing. There were 20 ridings in which the Conservatives won and the Liberals were behind by 11 points or less. So, right there that bumps the Liberals up to 177 seats.
Between the Liberals and NDP, there has been just a two-point national swing. That's not enough to win the Liberals any seats, as the closest LIB-NDP contest won by the NDP was Windsor West, which was NDP +3.7. And in Quebec, the Abacus poll represents a swing of over 4 points from the Liberals to the Bloc, which could actually cost the Liberals a couple seats.
Now, this is very simplistic since I am just using national swing rather than regional swing, but you get the idea. A 10-point lead over the Conservatives wins the Liberals a lot of seats at the Conservatives' expense, but they aren't doing much better relative to the NDP or Bloc than they were in 2019, so the upside is limited.
In the BC provincial election lots of people were shocked at how much of the Fraser Valley (conservative heartland) went NDP. The pundits argued this was because of massive growth of millennial suburban voters in the area. Im curious if the big demographic shift in regions like this (basically farmland to suburb in less then 5 yrs) will impact the National election. Likewise this Spring we were bombarded with “great rural migration” stories in every outlet about Millennial city folk moving to small towns/new provinces with the shift to remote work. I’m really interested to see an analysis of how this might disrupt the politics of traditionally “safe” seats