If the Abacus poll is accurate and the Liberals do end up about 10 points ahead of the CPC, how much larger would the Liberal seat pick up be? I’d imagine that kind of lead would exceed the possible 178…
If the Abacus poll is accurate and the Liberals do end up about 10 points ahead of the CPC, how much larger would the Liberal seat pick up be? I’d imagine that kind of lead would exceed the possible 178…
Well, let's keep it simple. The Conservatives beat the Liberals by one point in 2019 and this poll suggests the Liberals are ahead by 10, which means an 11-point swing. There were 20 ridings in which the Conservatives won and the Liberals were behind by 11 points or less. So, right there that bumps the Liberals up to 177 seats.
Between the Liberals and NDP, there has been just a two-point national swing. That's not enough to win the Liberals any seats, as the closest LIB-NDP contest won by the NDP was Windsor West, which was NDP +3.7. And in Quebec, the Abacus poll represents a swing of over 4 points from the Liberals to the Bloc, which could actually cost the Liberals a couple seats.
Now, this is very simplistic since I am just using national swing rather than regional swing, but you get the idea. A 10-point lead over the Conservatives wins the Liberals a lot of seats at the Conservatives' expense, but they aren't doing much better relative to the NDP or Bloc than they were in 2019, so the upside is limited.
If the Abacus poll is accurate and the Liberals do end up about 10 points ahead of the CPC, how much larger would the Liberal seat pick up be? I’d imagine that kind of lead would exceed the possible 178…
Well, let's keep it simple. The Conservatives beat the Liberals by one point in 2019 and this poll suggests the Liberals are ahead by 10, which means an 11-point swing. There were 20 ridings in which the Conservatives won and the Liberals were behind by 11 points or less. So, right there that bumps the Liberals up to 177 seats.
Between the Liberals and NDP, there has been just a two-point national swing. That's not enough to win the Liberals any seats, as the closest LIB-NDP contest won by the NDP was Windsor West, which was NDP +3.7. And in Quebec, the Abacus poll represents a swing of over 4 points from the Liberals to the Bloc, which could actually cost the Liberals a couple seats.
Now, this is very simplistic since I am just using national swing rather than regional swing, but you get the idea. A 10-point lead over the Conservatives wins the Liberals a lot of seats at the Conservatives' expense, but they aren't doing much better relative to the NDP or Bloc than they were in 2019, so the upside is limited.