Alberta's election setting up to be a nail-biter
Alberta's election setting up to be a nail-biter
Grenier Political Report for Alberta, E-98
The polls show a close race. The two main parties each have their regional strongholds and all the campaign funds they need. Their leaders are both experienced and voters are faced with something they rarely have known in their lifetimes — a competitive election in Alberta.
The contrast between the United Conservatives and New Democrats is stark. Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley are both formidable politicians. The importance of Alberta in Confederation and its role in federal-provincial relations is enormous.
In short, this spring’s election is setting up to be hugely consequential for both Albertans and the country as a whole.
And it’s anyone’s guess who will win it.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
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In a close contest, it is always difficult to bet against the incumbent. A sitting government has plenty of advantages, and when that government is a conservative government in a conservative province, you might have to give them the benefit of the doubt.
But the Alberta New Democrats are making a race out of this upcoming campaign. Rachel Notley’s victory in 2015 was unthinkable just a few weeks before the votes were counted. No one would be terribly surprised if she pulled it off this time.
Grenier Political Report for Alberta, E-98
The UCP and NDP are evenly matched as the Alberta election approaches. The polls give the UCP a narrow advantage across the province, but it is less clear who is leading in Calgary, where the election will be decided. The NDP has its base of strength in Edmonton and the potential to make significant gains in Calgary, enough for it to win. But the UCP has some strengths derived from the province’s history and the make-up of their electoral coalition. They also have a potential vulnerability in Danielle Smith, who has lost an election she was supposed to win before.
Let’s break down the upcoming Alberta election from every angle, starting with how we got here.