When Manitobans go to the polls as scheduled on October 3, 2023, the odds are they will elect a new government. Unless Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives can pull themselves out of their current nose dive, Wab Kinew and the New Democrats will win the next provincial election.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government (unless otherwise specified). Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
(I posted the first edition of the GPR last week. In it, I previewed next year’s election in Prince Edward Island. You can check it out here.)
For Manitoba, the collapse in support for the PCs in the key suburbs of Winnipeg puts their government at serious risk. And the trends aren’t getting better.
Grenier Political Report for Manitoba, E-351
With a consistent and long-standing lead in the polls both province wide and especially in Winnipeg, where most of Manitoba’s ridings are located, Wab Kinew and the New Democrats are on track to win the 2023 Manitoba election. Premier Heather Stefanson has had some of the worst approval ratings of any premier in the country and she has only become more unpopular as the next election approaches. Unseating an incumbent is no easy feat, however, and PC support is near its historical floor, so an NDP victory is not a given.
Let’s now break down why the New Democrats are the favourites, but not a lock, to win next year.
