The next federal election is a toss-up
Grenier Political Report for the next federal election, E-1078
Whether the next federal election is held in 2025 or earlier, it’s setting up to be a toss-up between Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
Because neither party is showing signs it is the odds-on favourite to win.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
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Canada’s electoral geography continues to make it difficult for any party to cobble together a majority — and the polls suggest that things haven’t changed much from the last two elections. What little change has occurred only indicates more uncertainty on which party might actually come out in front.
Grenier Political Report for Canada, E-1078
While the conventional wisdom might suggest that the Conservatives should be considered the favourites to win after a decade of Liberal rule, the history is not so clear-cut on that. The polls still suggest that the Liberals remain competitive and that Pierre Poilievre, while popular among his base, has not proven his ability to breakthrough to the broader electorate. With a divided political landscape in Quebec and British Columbia, the path to a majority government is largely blocked. If the race is for a plurality of seats then it will come down to Ontario, where neither party is currently favoured.
Let’s break down the next federal election from every angle, starting with how we got here.