A year out, P.E.I. election is the PCs' to lose
Grenier Political Report for Prince Edward Island, E-358.
With a little less than one year to go before Prince Edward Island holds its next scheduled election on October 2, 2023, the governing Progressive Conservatives remain in a very strong position — and on track to win the majority government they fell just short of securing in 2019.
That is, unless Hurricane Fiona blows them off course.
With this, I launch what I’m calling the Grenier Political Report, which is rather unsubtly inspired by the Cook Political Report in the United States. The GPR is my best estimate of where an upcoming election stands, and will be published at regular intervals. My intention is to publish these GPRs roughly one year, 100 days and 50 days ahead of scheduled elections, with yearly GPRs for the upcoming federal election.
As I have been already been doing since launching The Writ, I will also continue to publish election day analyses of where each party sits as voting begin. (Quebec’s was here.)
In the Grenier Political Report, I’m going to bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government (unless otherwise specified). Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
So, let’s get to the first Grenier Political Report, focusing on Prince Edward Island and one of the easiest calls in the country to make.
Grenier Political Report for P.E.I., E-358
Dennis King and the Progressive Conservatives have been consistently leading in the polls ever since their 2019 minority victory. They have confirmed that support in two byelections in which they defeated the Liberal incumbents and turned their minority government into a majority government. With high government satisfaction levels and a big lead in voting intentions throughout the province, the PCs are likely to win a bigger majority than what they currently have. The government’s response to Hurricane Fiona, however, could change this outlook.
Let’s now break down why the PCs are the big favourites to win next year.