Alberta still a toss-up, but the onus is on the UCP not to lose
Grenier Political Report for Alberta, E-49
The Alberta election is now less than 50 days away and its outcome is getting no more predictable.
Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives still hold all the advantages of being the incumbent conservative government in a conservative province. They have a solid base and a high floor.
While Rachel Notley’s New Democrats also have a solid base, their ceiling is low and their margin for error is tiny. Fortunately for them, their opponent is error prone and giving them every chance to return to power.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
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In February, I judged this contest to be a toss-up between the New Democrats and the United Conservatives. With less than 50 days to go, I still consider it a toss-up. But, if there was a category between toss-up and lean UCP, that’s where I would end up.
Grenier Political Report for Alberta, E-49
Polls suggest the UCP and NDP are tied across the province as well as in Calgary, where the election will be decided. The prospects for significant NDP gains in Calgary are very good, but the last few seats that would get them to 44 will be difficult to win. The NDP also faces some serious challenges when it comes to turnout, as the UCP has far greater support among older voters. But despite the UCP’s intrinsic advantages, the potential for its leader to lose an election she should otherwise win remains too high.
Let’s break down the upcoming Alberta election from every angle, starting, as we always do, with how we got here.