The Writ Drop is your weekly round-up of everything you might have missed in political and election news, federal, provincial and municipal polling.
Good morning everyone! I hope you enjoyed the long Thanksgiving weekend. But gird yourself, we’ve got lots of voting to get through over the next seven days!
Here’s what you might have missed from me over the last week:
THE WRIT
The Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker was updated on Friday with a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute. With those numbers (from a pollster that has recorded higher support for separation than most other pollsters), the aggregate now shows 27% support for independence before the exclusion of undecideds. Expect more updates to the tracker over the weekend.
The British Columbia Election Tracker was updated a few times during the week, notably with polls from Léger, Research Co., Pallas Data and Ipsos. The B.C. Conservatives are holding their advantage and are projected to win 51 seats to the NDP’s 40. I wrote a deeper dive into the poll numbers, and some of the problems facing the New Democrats, in a pre-debate analysis. READ HERE
The Federal Vote and Seat Projections were also updated with new polls from Liaison Strategies, EKOS Research, Nanos Research and Abacus Data. The Liberals hold a 15.4-point lead over the Conservatives in the vote projection. A Léger poll published Friday afternoon has not been added to the model yet, but it also showed a 15-point Liberal lead.
THE NUMBERS & LES CHIFFRES
The Numbers: Will Eby’s snap call be a blunder for the ages? - Little more than a week remains in the B.C. election campaign that the NDP’s David Eby set in motion, two years ahead of schedule. The leaders debate took place last night and things could still change. But the polls are not looking good for the New Democrats. Are they about to lose this election and give Lorne Doerkson and his B.C. Conservatives an unexpected victory? This week on The Numbers, we break down the latest polling numbers out of British Columbia. We also set up Monday’s referendum on Alberta independence, take a peek at new federal polls and chat about the mayor’s race in Toronto, where the race seems to be tightening. Then, we close with a short Quiz (it’s back!) and an extended mailbag segment that is available for our members. WATCH OR LISTEN HERE
Les chiffres : Le courrier des membres — spécial postélectoral - Pour cet épisode spécial du balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe répondent à vos questions sur l’élection québécoise du 5 octobre dernier. Nous faisons un retour sur une campagne mouvementée : victoire minoritaire du Parti québécois, déroute complète de la CAQ et plusieurs victoires surprises du PLQ. Quelles leçons tirer des résultats? Quels défis attendent les partis à l’Assemblée nationale? Et que nous réservent les prochaines années? ÉCOUTEZ ICI (RÉSERVÉS AUX MEMBRES)
Now let’s take a look at some of the latest developments and new polls that I didn’t get a chance to get to this past week.