It’s debate night in British Columbia and the stakes are high.
One leader could seal the deal and win the election. Another leader could save himself from a humiliating, self-imposed defeat. And a third could shake up the race entirely.
The debate will feature David Eby of the NDP, Lorne Doerkson of the Conservatives and Emily Lowan of the Greens. It’s starting at 6:15 PM PT and will be moderated by the Angus Reid Institute’s Shachi Kurl.
And (with only a little hyperbole) it could decide the outcome of this election.
As it stands, Doerkson is on track to become the next premier of British Columbia — unexpectedly, considering he became the leader of the B.C. Conservative Party less than four weeks ago. Eby’s early election call has backfired rather spectacularly, turning an almost sure-thing against Kerry-Lynne Findlay, Doerkson’s predecessor, into a steep uphill climb. As of yesterday’s update to the B.C. Election Tracker, the Conservatives are now the two-to-one favourites to win this election.
The projection awards the Conservatives 44.8% of the vote, putting them roughly two points ahead of the New Democrats. That gives them the lead in 51 seats, with just 40 remaining to the NDP (and two to the Greens). While there are many close races between the Conservatives and NDP that will decide the outcome, the NDP only wins the most seats in 31% of simulations.
Why is the NDP so high? I’ve seen some questions about why the NDP could be projected to take nearly 43% of the vote when every recent poll has them at 42% or lower. The reason is that the Green vote has to go somewhere. The Greens are not running candidates in 20 ridings but are averaging about 10-11% in recent polls. Because the party does not have a full slate, it is almost certainly being over-estimated in polls, as voters are usually not aware of the candidate slate in their local riding and, where voters are aware, a provincewide poll will not be able to capture that nuance. If the Greens are lacking a candidate in about 22% of ridings, they will likely only get about 78% of the vote that the polls are awarding them, liberating about 2-2.5 percentage points. Polls suggest that nearly all of that vote will go to the NDP, as it is the overwhelming second choice of Green voters. The model takes that into account, and so accordingly boosts the NDP in ridings where there is no Green candidate. That gives the NDP a higher vote projection than a simple average of the polls would give the party.
With the New Democrats trailing, the debate might be the last moment Eby has to turn things around ahead of the October 24 vote. He’ll have to convince voters that his early election call was necessary and that the Conservative Party, despite its change in leadership, is still the division-ridden, unstable and unpopular party that voters were rejecting in growing numbers before Findlay’s resignation. If Eby can manage to do that, he might be able to turn this race back into a toss-up.
For Doerkson, the debate is more about what he shouldn’t do: give voters who weren’t sold on Findlay’s version of the Conservatives a reason to go back to the NDP. He is still a largely blank slate, so as long as he looks normal and unthreatening, while representing the change that polls suggest voters want, he should be able to hold the Conservatives’ current support levels.
The stakes are lower for Lowan, but she will be the wildcard on the debate stage. She’s a young woman leading a party that can only hope for a handful of seats debating two older men who are vying to be premier. The power dynamics have to be handled deftly by both Eby and Doerkson to avoid condescension or aggression. Like Doerkson, Lowan is also a blank slate. She has an opportunity to make her mark and give the Greens the chance to win more than the two seats the party held at dissolution. In an ideal scenario for the Greens, she might even be able to achieve the balance of power in a minority legislature, as occurred after the 2017 election.
But the pressure will be highest on David Eby. He’s the incumbent premier who called an early election that he is on track to lose. And he’s got a few problems he needs to tackle to ensure he doesn’t enter the books as having scored one of the worst own-goals in Canadian political history.
NDP’s Metro Vancouver problem
One polling trend that should be most concerning to the New Democrats is the emerging close race in Metro Vancouver, where about half of the province’s seats are located.