The Weekly Writ for Aug. 9: Conservatives gaining in the right places
Plus, PCs win big in Nova Scotia byelection, the riding to watch tomorrow night in Saskatchewan and Ernest Manning's first victory.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
The polls have been good for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives this summer, and they’ve gotten better in places where the Conservatives need to make gains in the next election.
Case in point: how things have shifted in the Léger and Abacus Data polls since last year.
We’ll focus on polls conducted in July 2022 and July 2023. Last July, Léger gave the Liberals a lead of four points across the country. Abacus had the Conservatives ahead by five. Average those out, and it was effectively a tie. The NDP trailed in third with 19-21% support.
This July, Léger had the Conservatives ahead by nine points, while Abacus put the Conservatives ahead by 10. The NDP trailed with 17-18%.
On average, this suggests the Conservatives gained six points, with the Liberals down three and the NDP down 2.5.
With the exception of the Prairies, where the Conservatives dropped an average of one point between these two sets of polls, the party is up everywhere. The biggest gains have come in Atlantic Canada (+9.5), British Columbia (+8.5) and Ontario (+7). That’s just about the best scenario the party could hope for when it comes to picking up new seats.
Growth in Quebec (+4.5) and Alberta (+5) has been more modest, but still good.
That growth hasn’t come from every party equally. The Liberals have plummeted 13 points in Atlantic Canada. They are down 6.5 points in Alberta and 5.5 points in the Prairies. But they’ve only lost 2.5 points in B.C., two points in Ontario and 1.5 points in Quebec. It’s because the Liberals are holding on in the three biggest provinces that the Conservatives are being kept from reaching the majority government threshold.
The Bloc Québécois has been holding steady at around 31% to 32%, matching their results in the last two elections. Apparently, the Bloc has its vote and it isn’t budging.
The New Democrats haven’t seen their support move by more than a point in either direction in Alberta, Quebec or Atlantic Canada — all regions where their seat holdings and prospects are minimal. But they are down 5.5 points in both British Columbia and the Prairies, as well as 4.5 points in Ontario.
So, it certainly seems that the Conservatives are taking from both parties. As I laid out in yesterday’s analysis, it does matter where that new support is coming from, and there are some signs that some of it is coming from areas where the Conservatives already hold all the seats. Surges in rural Ontario, the B.C. Interior or the parts of the Maritimes that are already blue won’t help in the seat count.
But there’s undoubtedly enough spillover here to put the Conservatives in a solid minority government position. We’ll see if they can tip over into majority territory.
Before getting to today’s Weekly Writ, don’t forget to join me and Philippe J. Fournier tomorrow night for our livestream of the Saskatchewan byelection results. It starts at 10 PM ET / 8 PM CT on Thursday and you’ll find the stream here:
These are some interesting contests, with two urban seats being targeted by the Saskatchewan New Democrats and one rural seat where the governing Saskatchewan Party is trying to tamp down support for rivals to its right. If you missed it last week, check out my discussion with Adam Hunter in the most recent episode of The Writ Podcast to get caught up.
Alright, now to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of the byelection results in Preston and who is raising all the dough in British Columbia and Alberta.
Polls on the carbon tax and Manitoba politics.
The slimmest of minority governments in Manitoba if the election were held today.
The riding to watch in tomorrow’s Saskatchewan byelections is the focus of this week’s riding profile.
Ernest Manning makes Social Credit boring and electable in the #EveryElectionProject.
Jagmeet Singh marks a new milestone.